“It’s boring, simple, and unsexy. It’s the anti-AI and anti-Green Revolution investment that you should all be making right now. And I bet, even after I present everything to you right now, you still won’t do it.”
I made this speech last September, in 2024, at a small event in Washington D.C. The audience was a couple dozen family offices and private investors, who were all looking to grow their wealth while avoiding unnecessary risk.
I spoke for about 40 minutes, covering everything from geopolitics and how they will be affecting global macro trends, to platinum and why it was my number one risk-reward investment idea at the time.
After the presentation, an older man approached me and asked how he could invest in platinum. I said, “Just like I said in the presentation. Just go with the safe play and hold on for a couple years.”
“That’s it?” he said.
“Yes. That’s it,” I responded. “Of course, there are all kinds of ways to get fancy with the trade to juice your returns. But, if you want limited downside risk with great upside exposure, just buy what I shared in the presentation.”
I just received an email from him earlier this week.
You Can Lead a Horse to Water
Summarized, the email said, ‘Hey Cody, I never bought $PPLT when we talked in Washington D.C. Do you think it’s too late?’
I didn’t respond to him. Not because I didn’t want to, but because I don’t give individual investment advice. Legally, I can’t (actually, I can, but I don’t unless it’s a client). And honestly, I’m not in the business of giving people hot stock picks.
Sure, I like to talk about investment ideas, specific companies, and big trends. It helps me go through all of the analysis motions and forces me to write out what I’m actually thinking.
But I learned a long time ago that trying to help investors perfectly time the purchase of a specific stock, and when to sell that stock, just never works.
I still get emails to this day about investing opportunities that I wrote about 10 years ago. Sometimes these emails are complaints about certain strategies that are completely out of date and irrelevant. It’s as if some people expect an idea that I wrote about in 2017 to be applicable today in 2025.
Today, I mostly write about ideas that are in an uptrend, entering a new thematic, or have some sort of unique value. If I can hit all three at the same time, then that’s when I know I’ve found something special.
Then, I can dive deeper on my own, into specific companies that fit into a trend, theme, and/or value profile. I hope that you are doing the same thing on your own.
If you can’t, or just have the time, you should be letting someone else manage your money. Pick people who are unique thinkers, have a great track record, and who you trust. Many times, even if you love investing and have some great ideas, it’s really a better idea to let someone else do the trading for you. This is especially true if your full time job is something other than being a full time investor.
Anyway, back to the situation that exists in platinum right now…
Trend, Theme, & Value
Over the years, I’ve written about platinum many times – most recently in February of this year. I’ve gone in depth before, but the gist is that it’s totally reasonable for platinum to increase in price by 300% or more.
That’s not necessarily a prediction, but just a assumption if the platinum price was to catch up to gold. Platinum, until very recently, has been trading around $1,000/oz while gold is now well over $3,000/oz. Platinum is more rare than gold and has traditionally traded for a higher price than gold. Pretty simple logic here.
Over the past couple of weeks platinum has finally started to wake up. As I write this, the silver metal is now up over 40% YTD and I think there is a lot more room to run. Many platinum miners are up over 100% in just the past couple of months.
But this story isn’t just about the investment opportunity in platinum. It’s about a bigger trend, a bigger theme, and a search for value.
Super Storm of Change
Earlier this month I discussed the major changes that are unfolding in the US and global economy. The specific investment opportunities are a bit nuanced, but the general trend, theme, and focus on value is crystal clear to me.
I mentioned, “…investors will panic rotate out of highly valued positions into undervalued safe havens. This rotation, which has barely started, is likely to accelerate in terrifying ways for those who chose to ignore the clear warning signs.”
Platinum’s recent price surge is just one example of this trend unfolding. In that same post, I mentioned numerous other assets that are likely to explode in price in the coming years.
To be clear, this period of change is not necessarily an anomaly. Instead, it’s more of a reversion back to the mean.
Adapting to Change
Changing your mind is one of the most difficult things to do. It can also be a career risk.
My good friend, who is a former US Congressman, used to tell me how angry his constituents would get when he’d flip-flop on a controversial topic. Ordinarily, when you’re presented with new information it’s very rational to change your opinion. But the outside perception can make you look indecisive or even unprincipled.
Similar to sailing, investing is a discipline where you should change your mind constantly.
I haven’t changed my mind with platinum, yet. But if the current upward price trend continues for too long, I’ll certainly be trimming the sails.
