Explore. Discover. Invest.
Economy , Finance , Investing

3 Presidential Election Bets

November 5, 2016

3 Presidential Election Bets


I’ll skip all the analysis about the US Presidential election. Whatever side you are on – left, right, center, up, down – we can all agree that this entire situation is FUBAR.

Regardless of who gets elected, half of the US population (and parts of the world) will be furious.

This insane emotional roller-coaster will fuel massive volatility in US and world markets. So… here are three ways that you can profit from the US Presidential election:

1. Put and call options on $SPY. Buying put and call options on the stock SPY will allow us to use leverage to our advantage.

SPY is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, so if we see a decline in the stock market, we can use put options to leverage our ability to be profitable.

As a hedge, we can also buy call options so we can profit from a rise in the stock market.

Regardless of which way the stock market will go, there is a strong argument for massive movement in markets, post election.

I’ve written an entire article about it here, if you’d like to lean more.

***In the past few days these call and put options have gone up significantly in price, as other traders are probably using this same strategy. Do not buy these options if they are overly expensive, and expect to lose all money spent on these options. Furthermore, even if you do buy one of these options and the trade turns out in your favor, there is a liquidity issue that may arise resulting in many trades expiring worthless.

2. Bet on things you know will win. I was given this strategy by a good friend, so I can’t take credit for it myself. Understand that this strategy, although similar to #1 and #3 is just a bet that does not involve the stock market.

Using the website “Betfair” we can look at all kinds of bets that are centered around the US Presidential election.

Most of the bets are polarized – meaning that you’re betting on Clinton or Trump, or Republican or Democrat, or male or female, etc.

However, some of the bets go a little deeper, like the amount of states that will vote right or left.

If you do your homework, you know with reasonable certainty that states like California or New York will vote Democrat. However, these bets are offering up to 2% (as of this writing) for a California Democrat vote. Making a bet that California will vote democrat is pretty safe and offers 2%, which is 730% annualized return.

There are currently over 20 straight bets on the website, but if you do a combined bet, the combinations are almost infinite. If you can do your own research, you may be able to make several very safe bets that will give a safe and solid return.

3. Call options on leveraged gold stocks. This an extremely risky strategy, but can offer huge rewards.

The thesis behind this trade is that no matter who wins the election, many investors will flee to gold as a safe haven.

Leveraged stocks such as $NUGT and $JNUG are 3x levered ETFs that track the performance of daily movements of the ETFs holdings.

Because these stocks track the daily movements, they are quite volatile and have a decay effect that do not make them attractive as long-term holds.

However, for short term trades they can be perfect. And, if we buy call options on these leveraged ETFs we are upping the stakes even more.
(These call options give you the right to buy a stock at a certain price, not the obligation.)

If we look at options with a November 11th expiration date, some can be picked up for less than a dollar.
(Again, you can read this recent article here  or this article about volatility index (^VIX) options.

These leverage ETFs can see daily swings of over 20%, so if you buy options your profits could be enormous. But, realize that those daily swings can go the other way too.

All three of these strategies are essentially bets, so treat them accordingly. Do not spend any money you can’t afford to lose, because that is what will probably happen.

However, most people may want to say that they at least ‘threw their name in the hat!’

Also, remember that this election has many topics on the ballot, like the legalization of recreational marijuana in California – the sixth largest economy in the world. The third largest state by population, Florida, also has medical marijuana on the ballot.

There are many publicly traded cannabis stocks that you can buy right now before mainstream investors flood the market. Several stocks that I mentioned earlier this year are up over 500% right now and some are up well over 1000%. (You can review a free report I published several weeks ago here – it’s over 40 pages of great information all for free. )

Some of these cannabis stocks are extremely volatile, while other are safer (like this one here )

In closing, I think we are all looking forward to this craziness surrounding the election to finally come to an end. Profiting from this event would just put a cherry on top.