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Economy , Investing

The Best Investment I Lose Money On

February 24, 2025
Cody
Cody
The Best Investment I Lose Money On

I lose money every time I host a dinner, yet they are my best investments. That’s because there is extreme value to gathering like-minded, successful individuals in a private room… Especially if you feed them well!

This past week in Austin, Texas was no different. We had a diverse and entertaining group of dinner guests who continued the dinner on late into the early morning hours.

One guest has been a reader of mine for over 12 years(!), and I’ve never even spoken to him once. It was humbling for me to realize that there are so many readers out there that I have yet to ever make contact with.

Over the past decade I have hosted dozens (over 100?) dinners around the world, and this was the second time hosting one in Austin. One interesting thing about this dinner is that Chelsea (who many of you know) recorded one of the impromptu speeches I gave, and then had it transcribed and summarized.

Below is that speech, which I have edited a bit to make it readable. Although it’s impossible to share what really happened at the dinner (that’s the whole point of meeting in person with great people), what you’ll read below should give you a fun preview…

 

The Best Investment I Lose Money On 1

Our dinner, in an underground brewery from the mid-1800’s, in Austin, Texas.

Why America is Still the Best Place to Invest—And Where to Look for Opportunities Abroad

For the past 20 years, I’ve been on a mission—traveling the world, hunting for overlooked opportunities, and putting boots on the ground to find real value. I’ve walked the streets of major cities and remote jungles, seeing firsthand what’s working and what’s not.

The U.S. is still the best place to do business, by a long shot (trust me, I have the battle scars to prove it!).

But let’s be real—it’s also incredibly expensive right now. If you want to maximize your investments, you’ve got to look beyond overvalued US markets.

The U.S. Economy: Still the Healthiest Horse in the Glue Factory

Love it or hate it, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of business and innovation. This country has something special—an entrepreneurial spirit that’s ingrained in the culture. That’s why, despite all the political drama, people from all over the world still want a U.S. passport.

I’ve been investing globally for two decades—Australia, Africa, Asia, South America, Central America—you name it. I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the outright absurd. That’s why it’s so clear to me: America is number one. You can fight me on that, but I’ve seen it firsthand. The line of people trying to get into this country says it all.

That said, our markets are incredibly expensive right now. That’s especially true when compared to places like Brazil. Colombia, and many other countries, where entire stock markets are trading at single digit P/E ratios.

Perhaps this time is different, and the US will continue to outperform the entire world for the rest of time?

The Dangers of Overpaying

We’ve seen this before. In 1999, investors threw cash at anything with ‘.com’ in the name, convinced the internet would change everything. And it did—but they still massively overpaid. Today, we’re in another hype cycle, this time with AI, crypto, and high-growth tech stocks.

Take Palantir, for example. It’s trading at a P/E of 500. That means investors are valuing the company at 500 years’ worth of earnings. Either Palantir is going to get every single government contract around the world, or that stock is coming back down to earth.

I sold my Palantir stock a few months ago at a 400% gain in nine months. You never lose money taking profits. But I’ve also held onto stocks for too long, convinced that the hype was real. Lesson learned: fundamentals always matter—eventually.

Where to Find Value: International Markets and Overlooked Assets

If the U.S. is overpriced, where’s the smart money going? Here’s where I’m looking:

  1. Colombia (Ecopetrol – $EC): P/E of 4. Dividend yield of 30%. The Colombian government owns 88% of this company, meaning they have every reason to keep it profitable.

  2. Brazil (Petrobras – $PBR): P/E of 5. Dividend yield of 20%. Again, a government-backed cash printer.

  3. Guyana: This is one of the biggest untapped opportunities right now. Their GDP per capita has nearly quadrupled in just four years. The government is actively inviting businesses to come in and take advantage. If you’re an entrepreneur, get on a plane. I have been down there multiple times, met with the President, heads of state, and even the U.S. embassy. They are ready to do business.

  4. Platinum: Gold is trading at nearly $3,000 per ounce, while platinum is sitting at $900. Historically, platinum has traded higher than gold. If that gap closes, you’re looking at a 3x return on platinum.

  5. Natural Gas: The U.S. is quietly locking Europe and Asia into long-term energy dependence, and natural gas is still relatively cheap. This is about more than money—it’s about geopolitical control.

  6. IVF & Fertility Stocks: Trump just announced subsidies for IVF. Nobody’s talking about this sector, but it’s about to get huge. These stocks are still cheap, but not for long.

The Geopolitical Shift and Why Africa is a No-Go Right Now

A lot of investors look at Africa as the next frontier. Here’s my take: avoid it. Russian mercenaries (the Wagner Group) are seizing mining operations, and political instability is through the roof. The risk is not worth it.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is shifting focus to Latin America, strengthening trade ties and investing heavily in the region. That’s where I’m looking for opportunity. Argentina, Brazil, and Central America are primed for the next decade.

Bitcoin and the Future of Stablecoins

The U.S. government is moving toward regulating dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies (probably $USDC). People worry about BRICS countries challenging the dollar, but here’s the reality: most people in the world still trust U.S. dollars over anything else.

Here’s something to think about—take an Iraqi dinar and try to use it in South Africa. No one will take it. But try that with a U.S. dollar. They’ll take it every time. That tells you everything you need to know about how the world still views the U.S. dollar.

A regulated, widely accepted U.S. dollar stablecoin could entrench dollar dominance even further. But long term, the real play for wealth preservation is Bitcoin. It’s digital energy, a true store of value, and one of the most interesting investments you can make right now.

The Next Wave of Crypto Adoption

The first step in mainstream crypto adoption will likely come through U.S. dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies. People will start transacting with stablecoins, getting comfortable with the ease and speed of digital payments.

But once they realize the potential beyond just mirroring fiat currency, they’ll start exploring alternatives—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other decentralized assets. Once people get comfortable transacting with stablecoins, they’ll naturally start looking for better alternatives.

And that’s where Bitcoin comes in. It’s decentralized, independent, and built to last. Other assets like Ethereum, Solana, and SUI will also play a role, but Bitcoin remains the foundation.

Here’s my advice: don’t wait to get involved.

You don’t have to pour your savings into crypto—just start using it. Make a few transactions, test the waters, and get familiar with the process. The biggest advantage you can give yourself is understanding how this technology works before everyone else does.

It’s like the early days of the internet—those who learned to code or understood computers back then had an enormous advantage. This is that moment for crypto. Those who embraced the internet early gained an edge. The same will happen with crypto.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. is still the best place to do business, but if you’re looking for value, you need to think globally. Many undervalued economies offer incredible opportunities. Platinum is a steal. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere.

Investing is about discipline. Don’t get caught up in hype. Find real value where others aren’t looking.