Of course, in hindsight, those calls have been horrible. Oil and gas have ripped higher than most could have ever imagined while gold has pulled back by ~$1,000/oz since January.

Oil, gas, and gold in 2026 have done the complete opposite of what Goldman Sachs predicted… So far, that is.

As you may remember, I was very bullish about oil and gas last year. I even went to Canada on a fact-finding mission, which I shared here. Every company I mentioned in that last article have seen incredible gains over the past couple of months.

But that’s not what I find most interesting right now. It’s metal miners that are currently in a very curious situation, and the recent volatility in oil is what makes this whole opportunity important today.

Cheap Oil, Expensive Metals, Huge Margins

During last year’s run up in metals prices (especially gold, silver, and platinum), there was an even larger price explosion in the mining companies that extract these metals from the earth.

This was not really a major surprise, but it was a little different than how things have unfolded in the past. Generally speaking, mining companies rally after metal prices surge.

The rational is that investors are waiting to see sustained elevation in metals prices before accumulating mining companies that would see increased margins from those valuable metals.

One of the major reasons why miners rallied with metals is because oil was so cheap. In most mining operations, the cost of diesel can account for 20%-40% of total opex… And even more if diesel prices really skyrocket.

Throughout late 2025 mining investors saw this oil-cheap, metals-expensive scenario as a major buying opportunity. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF ( ) doubled in just six months. Some individual mining companies share prices exploded much, much more than that.

But since the start of the war in Iran, things have drastically changed. And that may be our opportunity.

The Best Gold Miners in the World are CHEAP Right Now

The run up in gold prices, and miners, could be seen as a repricing event rather than a normal market rally. Meaning that the broader market - really the entire world - was not properly valuing gold prior to 2025.

Now, in early 2026, as we’re seeing gold prices and miners pull back from their highs, one has to ask, “Is this rally over?”

Although no one has the answer to that, gold prices are historically correlated to market uncertainty, inflation, and central bank policy - all three of which could be tailwinds for the foreseeable future.

As I mentioned last week, uncertainty is literally at a generational all time high. And when you look at the US’s budget situation, it’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario where a ‘big print’ doesn’t come at some point.

Regardless of all of that, gold miners are incredibly cheap right now and the market is ignoring them as if they were yesterday’s news. Could this be a major opportunity for investors to load up on the world’s best gold producers?

Let’s start looking…

The World’s Largest Gold Miner

I hesitate to even mention this company because of their stock chart. The run up in Newmont Corporation’s ( ) stock price is so extreme my gut tells me to look elsewhere.

But if you look at Newmont’s valuation and financial metrics, it’s hard to paint a bearish picture.

With a forward P/E of less than 9, over $8 billion in cash, and an operating margin of almost 50%, this company is nearly guaranteed to live prosperously far into the future. And that doesn’t even take into account that they are the world’s largest gold miner, both in market cap and ounces of gold produced per year (projected at well over 5 million ounces in 2026).

If I had to pick something that I don’t like about the company, it would only relate to the location of some of its mines. With operations in Canada, Mexico, Suriname, Argentina, Peru, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, and the U.S., there are a couple of countries I’d prefer to stay away from. But, their portfolio is diversified enough to not cause that much concern.

Newmont isn’t my top pick, but I at least wanted to highlight that even with its unbelievable run up in price, it’s still valued attractively.

The Other 9 Gold Miners

Beyond Newmont, the other major gold miners that round out the top ten largest in the world are also relatively interesting.

• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd ( )

• Barrick Mining Corp ( )

• Wheaton Precious Metals Corp ( )

• AngloGold Ashanti Plc ( )

• Franco-Nevada Corporation ( )

• Gold Field Ltd ( )

• Kinross Gold Corp ( )

• Pan American Silver Corp ( )

• Royal Gold Inc ( )

And of these nine, only Agnico, Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, and Royal Gold trade with a forward P/E more than 10. The rest are arguably cheap by nearly every metric you can point to.

Despite the top ten gold miners looking very attractive right now, there are others that are even more enticing.

The following four companies make the above look expensive…

Read more

But just because they’re not drinking traditional alcoholic beverages doesn’t mean they aren’t drinking something. There’s a whole new category of drinks that are rapidly becoming more mainstream, and there’s big money being spent.

These new categories are already starting to disrupt the $2 trillion global alcohol market, which is expected to double by the mid-2030’s. With new RTD (ready-to-drink) formulations and a growing global consumer class fueling this growth, there are enormous opportunities for those who can bring the right products to market.

The Pandemic Hangover

Pouring a glass during the pandemic, for many people, was an easy way to deal with staying at home all day with your relatives. Nearly 30% of people in the US reported increased alcohol use during this time.

Now, that trend is reversing course.

American’s alcohol consumption rate is currently at the lowest it’s been in 90 years, and 2026’s data could prove even more shocking (yet to come out).

Source: Gallup

If you search “alcohol” on nearly every social app, you’re much more likely to find posts about people complaining about the bad effects, or celebrating their sobriety (try it - search ‘alcohol’ on and see what you find).

Alcohol companies are feeling the heat from this change in consumer behavior. Even the best investor in the world - Warren Buffet - has started to trim his Constellation Brands ( ) position after his -30% return (so far).

The company’s share price has been hammered over the past couple of years:

And it’s not just Constellation.

It’s Diageo ( ) too:

And Pernod Ricard ( $PDRDF ):

And Brown Forman ( $BF.B ):

And pretty much every major alcohol company you can think of. These are not recent trends, these are trends that have been unfolding since the peak of pandemic debauchery.

Note: As I was writing this, Pernod Ricard (maker of Absolut vodka) and Brown Forman (make of Jack Daniels) announced that they were considering a merger, highlighting the need to consolidate in the struggling market.

So what the heck are people drinking instead?

The New Drinking Class - Near Beer

We don’t need to look any further than what’s been happening in the beer world, as it’s the most popular alcoholic drink in the world by a long shot (about 40% of the total global volume).

The giant in this industry is ABInBev ( ), which owns famous brands like Budweiser, Corona, Michelob, Modelo, Stella Artois, and many more. (*Constellation Brands distributes Corona and Modelo in the US.)

ABInBev’s most recent reporting highlights the growth of their non-alcoholic beer revenue, which is over 8 times the growth of their traditional brands.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The company’s projected growth of their non-alcoholic beer line-up is projected to triple in the next several years.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The focus on their non-alcoholic category has appeared to somewhat stabilize their stock price.

Meanwhile, the other beer giant - Molson Coors ( ) - seems to be failing with no signs of stopping.

Interestingly, ABInBev’s most recent company presentation is the only major alcohol company to make an emphasis on this growing part of the market. There are several pages detailing their strategy and even major advertising campaigns, like Corona Cero’s recent sponsorship of the Milan Cortina Olympics.

Molson Coors, which owns Peroni’s non-alcoholic brand, doesn’t even have the words “non-alcoholic” in their annual presentation.

If you review Constellation’s recent report, they barely mention anything about this category, and the same goes with the presentation from Boston Beer Company ( ). Both of these company’s share prices have been crushed.

Are these major brewers completely missing the non-alcoholic boat?

It seems so, especially when you look at the growth of smaller startup brands, like Athletic Brewing.

As recently shared, “Athletic represents 52% of the non-alcoholic craft beer market, which alone isn’t surprising, until [you] put it in the context that they are outselling all 150+ other non-alcoholic craft beers, combined.”

It’s only a matter of time until brands like Athletic Brewing get acquired by major beverage distributors.

And that may happen soon…

The Next Player in Non-Alcoholic Beer - Soda Companies?

Athletic Brewing, which has outsold both Heineken’s and Bud’s non-alcoholic beer, has been on an incredible growth path, and it seems that they aren’t stopping.

Having raised $50 million two years ago, the company now produces over 500,000 barrels a year (that’s well over 80 million cans of beer!).

The company has invested heavily in their operations to continue to scale up their production and they are consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing companies in America.

But there was another fund raising round back in 2022 that investors should take note of. Prior to the $50 million raised in 2024, Athletic Brewing raised a previous $50 million round back in 2022. And guess who that round was led by?

A drink company that doesn’t own any kind of beer brand at all - Keurig Dr Pepper ( ).

Among KDP’s numerous brands, there are only a couple related to alcohol - margarita and bloody mary mixes. They mostly own brands like Dr. Pepper, 7Up, Snapple, Canada Dry, Krispy Kreme Donuts, and numerous other sugary drinks.

The company’s share price has struggled over the past couple years, and has drastically underperformed competitors Coca-Cola ( ) and Pepsi ( ) over the last five years:

in red, in green, and in blue.

Could Keurig Dr. Pepper have its eyes set on the non-alcoholic beer market to change their direction?

Although KDP did invest in Athletic Brewing back in 2022, there were no public announcements about any acquisition rights or intent.

If KDP doesn’t act soon to reverse their trajectory, maybe Coca-Cola or Pepsi will enter the non-alcoholic category? Coca-Cola already has several brands of RTD alcoholic drinks and Pepsi just announced their entrance into the same category.

Whatever happens here, it’s clear that legacy alcohol companies need to change their product offerings for an evolving consumer base.

While we wait, it’s almost certain that we’ll see a wave of non-alcoholic beverage acquisitions over the next couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see these traditional soda companies enter the game.

I’ll be highlighting another interesting development in the beverage world soon… One that involves Coca-Cola’s monopoly on a secret ingredient that another, soon to IPO company, has cracked.

To the north, the Sierra Nevada region offers Yosemite, Sequoia National Park, Lake Tahoe, and the highest mountain in the contiguous US - Mount Whitney (which I actually ran up by myself with a single water bottle one time).

Almost to the top of Mt Whitney, feeling some vertigo from the altitude.

To the east, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona are all easily accessible and offer more outdoor activities than you can shake a stick at. My favorites in these three states include Sedona, Huntsville, and Lake Mead.

Whether it was hiking, off roading, boating, or just staring at the star-studded skies, this western part of the United States gives the ultimate feeling of freedom and adventure. It’s an addictive feeling that many people invest significant time and money to make part of their lifestyles.

Although I’ve spent plenty of time in the areas mentioned above, there is nowhere else I have spent as much time in as Baja, California. This part of Mexico is extremely remote, offering some of the truest adventure - mixed with some danger - for those really wanting to get out there. It also doesn’t hurt that this stretch of coastline has some of the best hidden surf in the world.

Yes, that’s me as a kid, somewhere in remote Baja during the late 80’s.

Over the years, I’ve owned boats, off road adventure vans, travel trailers, motorcycles, quads, and every accessory you can imagine. If you live in this part of the world, what I’m explaining doesn’t sound crazy at all.

If you’re somewhere else in the US, or some other country, maybe this lifestyle sounds strange.

Maybe you’d be surprised to hear that many people pay just as much for their monthly RV or boat loan as they do for the actual home they live in.

It’s a HUGE industry.

In 2024 alone, there were over 200,000 new RV loans, which totaled more than $11.5 billion dollars in total funded value. -RVIA

And that was just for RV’s. When you look at boats, motorcycles, and all the other outdoor toys, the number explodes to well over a trillion dollars!

You get the point. It’s a massive industry and Americans love to exercise their freedoms, find adventure, bond with their family, and spend money like drunken sailors.

Hell yeah. Merica!

However, the industry today looks a lot different than it did just a couple of years ago. Recreational companies during the pandemic years, especially in the US, saw a boom like they have never seen before.

Hundreds of billions of dollars plowed their way into motorhomes, travel trailers, boats, and every outdoor activity you can think of. Companies raked in record profits and literally ran out of things to sell.

Anyone reading this today probably remembers this time well. But 20 years from now, this story will be hard to comprehend. RV show rooms ran out of inventory to sell. There were no more boats left on dealer’s lots. For a period of time, things were out of stock indefinitely.

Just like any boom bust cycle, we all know what comes next…

Boom, BUST. Wen Next Boom?

It’s the classic supply and demand story that effects every industry you can think of. Once supply surpasses demand, there’s only one thing left to do… Wait until that supply runs down to create demand again.

During this waiting period, disaster can effect even some of the most well known brands. Companies that over extend themselves during boom times struggle to survive with their oversupply.

The exact scenario happened to Joann Fabrics and Crafts last year in 2025. After their boom in sales during the pandemic, they couldn’t adjust fast enough for the eventual drop off - when people stopped sitting at home all day knitting sweaters!

Looking further back in time, you can find dozens of similar situations. Chesapeake Energy during the shale boom, Lehman Brothers during the housing crisis, and Jay Cooke & Company during the railroad boom of the late 1800’s.

But just because major brand name companies go under during these times of turmoil doesn’t mean the industry they’re operating in disappears. In fact, companies that can survive hard times typically come out stronger on the other side.

Investors who can identify these companies that will make it through to brighter times can reap enormous rewards. The challenge in finding the right player who can outlast the rest.

When it comes to the outdoor industry, one of the best examples of ‘will this company survive?’ is Camping World ( ) .

Just four years ago, this company was raking in nearly $7 billion a year and trading at over $40 per share. Today, their revenue is slightly less, but their shares have cratered to less than $6 per share.

Camping World is known as the nation's largest retailer of RV’s, RV accessories, and RV-related services. They were, until recently, led by well known CEO Marcus Lemonis who is still a major shareholder.

With a forward P/E of less than 6, Camping World would look extremely attractive right now… But they have a mountain of debt that looks very concerning to me.

What’s more interesting are the numerous brands that Camping World sells and does business with… But they don’t own. We’re talking about some of the best known recreational brands you can think of, with worldwide recognition.

These companies, which are household names, embody the feeling of adventure, freedom, and family. They’ve been featured in Hollywood movies for nearly a century and their products can maintain value over many decades.

Some antique versions can sell for much more than what they sell for today, all because outdoor enthusiasts value their real world functionality and their longterm symbology.

Today, you can buy these companies for a fraction of what they were previously valued at. And, if you’re like me, you shouldn’t be worried at all about the comeback of these brands.

I’ve picked four separate companies to highlight. Two of these companies own multiple brands that you will be very familiar with. You might of even seen one of them today.

A Catalyst for the Outdoor Recreation Industry?

Before we dive into the many brands and companies I think are on sale right now, it’s important to ask the question: why now?

Just as with any investment thesis, there needs to be some sort of catalyst to change the direction of a beat down industry. Why will the trend change?

We need to look no further than the current geopolitical chaos that is unfolding in the Middle East. While no one knows what will happen in the short term, there are already known effects impacting the medium term.

Drastic increases in oil prices have nearly doubled airfares in many parts of the world. Travel advisories for American citizens are no longer just applicable to the furthest flung destinations.

And that’s not even considering that flying just isn’t fun anymore. From the security line nightmares, to the unruly passenger packed buses in the sky, taking your family on a trip that involves airline travel is a nightmare.

We’ve seen this before. 25 years ago, to be exact. And here’s what happened next:

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to understand why this happened. The US has an incredible network of National Parks that include Yellowstone, Glacier, Grand Canyon, Everglades, Grand Teton, Zion, and dozens of other world famous natural wonders.

Then, when you combine the drivability of the entire US and the thousands of amazing cities, it’s obvious why consumers spend, and will continue to spend, so much money on adventures.

There are already signs of catalysts showing up, like this new partnership between Costco and Camping World.

Source: Costco

Let’s dive into the companies best positioned to come out of the outdoor recreational bust cycle, catalyzed by renewed global uncertainty… And take a look at some more recent news that could be a sign that the industry is turning around.

Read more

But really, it was a great trip. We got to swim in the lake, pet some wild deer, and I even burned a hole in my shoe during the evening campfire sessions. My kids got a kick out of that, after I had been warning them not to swing around coal-studded fire pokers.

While we were there I had a friend stop by for lunch who manages a large family office hedge fund based in Charlotte. He’s been successfully managing the fund for almost 20 years and I try to lap up any wise words he shares with me.

Looking out over the lake, out conversation quickly turned to the markets. Silver and platinum had just begin to make their meteoric rise, catching up to gold’s historic run after years of dormancy.

Having a lot of exposure to those metals and miners in my fund I mentioned that I was considering going to cash. My rationale was that I was uncomfortable with the enormous gains I was seeing in such a short amount of time. Of course the gains were great, but what was coming next?

I wasn’t seriously going to go into cash, but the comment I made sparked a broader conversation.

“You know,” Cody, my mentor said, “That’s one of the biggest challenges with investing and managing money for the long term. There’s always a temptation to bank your gains, but sometimes you just end up killing your momentum.

“But the bigger issue is not with killing your momentum,” he continued, “It’s that you always need to have your next move planned before you feel the urge to sell anything. Managing money is just as much about building a long term path as it is about the real time management part. That’s why very few people can do it long term. It’s difficult, exhausting, and sometimes feels impossible.”

Our conversation wondered off in some other direction, but his words have stuck with me - and they are especially relevant today.

Over the past couple of weeks I have been selling off much of my fund, taking profits in anticipation of new deep value plays ahead. This has been a difficult process, especially when I think about that conversation at Lake Norman.

But the data and information I’m looking at are telling me to take caution right now… And that was before the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

Mainstream’s Narratives

Let’s take a quick look at the obvious first: oil and gas.

The correlations of oil spikes and economic recessions are stunning. The only time an oil spike didn’t result in a recession was most recently in 2022. But, as I’ve explained in depth before, that time didn’t count. (Really, it didn’t!)

Source:

I have been looking at similar charts for the past year, which is one of the lessor reasons why I’ve been overweight in oil and gas over the past six months. The main reason was because oil and gas equities were trading at historically low valuations relative to… Everything!

My thought, other than the obvious value part, was that I’d like to be positioned in something that will rally and sing like a canary when trouble is coming. I think we’re there, or at least very close.

What’s interesting with this current oil rally is that it coincides with equity markets that are near all time high valuations. In fact, this past January marked the highest market cap to US GDP ratio in history (Warren Buffett’s favorite metric), at 220%.

Without taking into account a broader historical context, one would think that the current oil spike is purely attributed to the war in Iran. Zooming out, this oil spike would seem unordinary, assuming that all market run-ups proceeding recessions include a last hurrah from dinosaur bones.

Maybe that’s the point: We’re losing sight of the broader cycle and blaming price fluctuations on conveniently timed geopolitical crises. Maybe this is all just the broader master plan, which has been foretold by Mr. Benner:

Continuing on the current oil theme for a moment, the main concerns for market participants relate to how long we’ll have an oil crisis. How long will the Strait be closed?

The data is clear: The longer oil prices stay high, the more devastating the results.

Source: Vanguard

This is especially true for countries outside of the US, and their currencies.

Source: LSEG

This will weigh heavily on investors who have recently been rotating out of expensive US markets and into other parts of the world. As Reuters stated last month:

For the beginning of 2026, it was a great move - emerging markets and certain key US partners have had explosive returns lately. South Korea’s KOSPI saw a nearly 40% gain in the first two months of the year alone.

But, have investors jumped the gun by venturing outside the US too soon? The dollar index has sharply reversed trend as oil has ripped, and increasing energy costs tend to drag down non-US economies dramatically more.

Investors know this and have already been selling off many foreign tech companies in preparation for international consumer weakness. Alibaba ( ), Sea Limited ( ) , Nu Holdings ( ), MercadoLibre ( ), and many more have sold off aggressively since the start of 2026.

These company’s valuations, which are actually very attractive right now, may rise dramatically in the near future if weak consumer spending pulls down revenue generation. This, in turn, will drive those equity prices even lower as investors search for opportunities at fair value and steady growth.

The general consensus right now is that this scenario will happen due to our global oil shock that will lopsidedly effect those company’s target markets… Unless we have a very sharp reversal of what is going on in and around Iran.

What Mainstream is Missing, or at Least Ignoring

Beyond the current oil shock and geopolitical developments - which are still unfolding - there are a variety of data points that have piqued my interest over the past couple of years that relate to certainty.

Specifically that we, as investors and as a society, have an ever declining amount of certainty with nearly everything.

Some of this uncertainty is part of a normal cyclical process, like the election cycle. 2026 is a mid-term election year in the US which naturally brings up a lot of questions for where the country, and as a result much of the world, is headed.

Source: Longview Economics

Market drawdowns during mid-term election years are, simply put, not good. And it makes perfect sense why. Whether it’s new policy that will overturn certain market trends or individual elected officials that could alter global initiatives, the 12 months proceeding the mid-term elections have historically been very volatile.

Since November 3, 2025 - which is the beginning of the 12 months proceeding the 2026 US mid-term elections - the largest (peak-to-trough) drawdown in the S&P 500 has been -7.55%. This is well below the average of -18.2%, and would make it one of the lowest drawdown years ever.

Of course, we still have eight more months until the mid-terms… There’s plenty more time for things to happen!

Once in a Lifetime Uncertainty

The mid-term election uncertainty is just a blip on the radar. It really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, especially since we know it’ll happen again, and again, and again.

There’s another, much more important, cyclical uncertainty event that we’re all currently living through. The problem with this one is that it only comes around once in every generation. So, despite it’s cyclical nature, it’s really a one time experience for all involved.

That’s AI.

A quick disclaimer: I am not an AI zealot, nor have I been meaningfully invested in any specific AI company. But I do recognize it’s immediate and potential impact on society.

Not since World War II, has the world lived with the type of uncertainty it has today. I’m cautious to co-mingle historically significant events that included enormous amounts of tragedy and death, but the net result of the scenarios of today and of the past are likely to be very similar: We’ll soon be in a world that is nothing like today, and is currently nearly impossible to forecast accurately.

Of great importance is that no one has lived through an event like we’re currently experiencing. One where the future looks so uncertain that any significant investment of time, money, or energy may be a complete waste.

Again, this is not saying a period of extreme uncertainty hasn’t happened in the past. It just hasn’t happened during our personal lifetimes, which positions us individually in a very unfamiliar situation.

To be sure that my ‘extreme uncertainty’ remarks are not hyperbole, take a look at the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States:

Source: FRED

The elevation of the index ‘uncertainty level’ is just as important as the time this level is sustained at that elevation. As you can see, there is no other time in the past 40 years that even comes close. While data doesn’t exist (or at least I can’t find any) for the time period during WWII, I’m sure a similar index would look the same or even much worse. Regardless, none of us have lived through two of these events, making our current ‘certainty feelings’ incomparable.

Musical Chairs - You Don’t Have to Play

Investing is often a game of musical chairs. When one opportunity disappears, you have to find a new one quickly to keep your capital hard at work. Not deploying your capital - as in, not finding a chair to sit in - means you’re out of the game.

By the logic of many investors, including my mentor, you always need to be in the game. Even long term data shows that staying in the market always pays off.

As Buffett says, “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

But we also know that Berkshire holds the highest percentage of cash, ever, at over 30%, which is nearly $400 billion.

Do as he says? Or do as he does?

Your Permission Slip

Maybe you’ve read this far and thought to yourself, “Was this just some kind of cognitive dissonance exercise so Cody could justify his increased cash position within his fund?”

Perhaps there’s a bit of truth to that. Has there been anything written in world history where an author argues that their point of view is wrong?

Beyond my selfish current perspective, I truly do believe that most market participants have been conditioned to favor risk over caution for far too long. The FOMO, buy-the-dip, fintwit-compare-your-dick-annual-returns have all gone on long enough to seem completely normal.

It’s not.

So here’s your permission to take some caution.

There will always be new opportunities around each corner… But you can’t take action if you haven’t positioned yourself to exploit those opportunities.

All it took was a single run-in with an industrial ammonia plant, and now I can barely even look at that stuff.

It happened during the winter of 2011, when I was pulled from the fire station and shipped off to San Jose, California, for months of haz-mat specialist training. My department needed me certified, as our emergency calls were increasingly related to unknown chemicals and terrorist threats.

Between endless hours spent learning how to identify and handle live chemical agents, explosives, and every other nightmare substance you can imagine, we were constantly loaded onto buses for off-site visits to nearby chemical plants. The training was both extremely technical, but also somewhat simple. Part of the day was spent studying chemistry and specialized equipment handling, while the rest of the day was spent on putting it all to use in the field. 

A couple of months into my training we visited an industrial scale ammonia manufacturing facility. This location used the Haber-Bosch process, which reacts nitrogen from the air with hydrogen at high temperatures and pressures using an iron-based catalyst. But the most important thing I can remember from this day was the smell.

There's an incredible amount of research that links smells to memories. One random sniff of a specific scent can trigger immediate and vivid memories of a specific time and place.

That's what ammonia does to me.

It reminds me of that facility in San Jose. The tanks, pipes, sounds, and incredible amount of infrastructure that I wouldn't be able to rebuild on my own, even if I had an entire lifetime.

What's incredible, beyond the smells, is that there are nearly 15,000 similar chemical factories across the United States owned by thousands of individual companies.  Some of these companies, which are publicly traded, are currently valued for less than their replacement cost.

The market is wrong. And that's your opportunity.

Building Blocks of Society

Ammonia is just one of thousands of different chemicals that are manufactured in the US and around the world. Each of these chemicals rarely makes it to the consumer market on their own. Instead they are usually used as precursors for everything from fertilizers to plastics.

Literally everything you touch or are using in this exact moment was built by combining numerous different chemicals. Every day, the average human touches or consumes at least 100 different kinds.

It's impossible to imagine a future where we are not using chemicals, as they are relied on for our food, clothing, housing, and basic survival. And, as technologies advance, it's certain that we'll become even more dependent.

Despite this reliance, markets are almost completely forgetting about the basic commodities that our lives depend on. Similar to the situation with oil that I recently outlined, I believe there is an enormous opportunity within the chemical industry that is hiding in plain view.

Geopolitical Shock - My Chemical Thesis Changed Overnight

I started to write all of this about a month ago, before the war in Iran started.

Now, the exact chemical companies I was eluding to have seen parabolic moves to the upside. And there might be a lot more to come.

I don't need to give you an overview of what's happening in the world right now. With the Straight of Hormuz effectively closed, petrochemical exports from the Middle East have all but stopped, creating massive price volatility for various materials around the world.

Some things, like gasoline and diesel have seen obvious changes to the upside. Others, like food commodities and certain metals, have seen unbelievable daily swings as the market tries to figure out what is going to happen.

Like I mentioned earlier, specialty chemicals are required to manufacture nearly everything we encounter on a daily basis. And even more importantly, oil and gas are needed to manufacture those specialty chemicals.  

Source: CER

Because oil and gas supplies for international markets have been significantly disrupted, those 15,000 US chemical facilities have become incredibly strategic. That's especially true when you consider that the United States is a net oil and gas exporter. In other words, it's possible that the final products that specialty chemical companies in the US produce could have massive margins when selling their products in to the world market. Cheaper US oil and gas inputs with more expensive specialty chemical outputs.

Of course, not all chemical companies will see benefits. The type and price of their feedstocks will create a highly volatile market with big winners, and losers.

Oil & Gas Alchemy

Ideally, we want to look for companies that manufacture chemicals using US-based feedstocks (which is cheap, abundant natural gas and oil that we produce right here at home). These aren’t the giant commodity giants that swing wildly with every barrel of oil. We’re talking about specialty chemical producers that turn low-cost inputs into high-value products that the world can’t live without.

The war in Iran has created massive volatility, but it might also be making a structural advantage for American manufacturers. Cheaper domestic energy means fatter margins on the output side, especially when global competitors in the Middle East are offline.

It’s simple alchemy: low-cost feedstock in, premium-priced specialty chemicals out, sold into a world that suddenly has a shortage.

But not every name will capture this opportunity. The winners will be the ones with integrated US plants, strong balance sheets, and exposure to end-markets that stay resilient no matter how crazy energy prices get (think agriculture, autos, electronics, and infrastructure). That’s where the real opportunity sits right now.

Specialty Chemicals - A Smarter Bet

The market looks like it might be noticing what I learned smelling ammonia in that California plant back in 2011. Those chemical facilities aren’t basic factories. Instead, they’re national strategic assets. And specialty chemical companies are the ones best positioned to turn that reality into profits.

Unlike pure commodity plays that live and die by the price of a single feedstock, specialties give you pricing power, recurring demand, and the ability to pass through higher costs. The longer we see supply shocks, the more essential they'll become. Your cell phone, the fertilizer on your neighbor’s yard, the coatings on the bridge you drive over every day don't exist without them.

And now, with Middle Eastern supply choked off, US producers can charge global prices while paying domestic energy costs (albeit more expensive than a couple months ago). The parabolic moves we're seeing in the sector in the past couple of weeks probably aren't the top... Those moves are more like a multi-year re-rating. The same kind of re-rating we've seen with precious metals, like platinum (which I had been screaming about). 

Replacement costs for these plants are skyrocketing due to already increasing labor costs and rampant inflation. Despite the massive amount of money it'd take to build new facilities, many specialty chemical companies are trading for single digit P/E ratios and offer healthy dividends. 

Gorgonzola Smells Like Profit?

If any name feels personal to me after that 2011 training, it’s AdvanSix ($ASIX). This company makes nylon-6 resin, caprolactam, phenol, and acetone that go into everything from airbags and carpets to electronics and industrial coatings. They also produce ammonium sulfate fertilizer... The exact nutrient product that’s now in short supply globally because of the disruptions through the Straight of Hormuz.

What makes AdvanSix special is its fully integrated US footprint. They run on cheap domestic natural gas, have a disciplined $30 million annual cost-savings plan already in motion, and have a P/B ratio around 0.7. That is ridiculously cheap for a business whose replacement value keeps climbing everyday the Iranian conflict drags on... And everyday the US goes further into debt, only accelerating the re-emergence of the USD printing press!

The likely fertilizer crisis from the war is a direct tailwind for AdvanSix's agriculture business and their nylon products are tied to autos and construction that aren’t going anywhere. Although, to be fair, if we have an economic downturn, their nylon division could be more a liability. Still, the company is so cheap, I wonder if that's not even something to worry about?

There are dozens of other similar companies that trade in the US and throughout the world that could be in similar situations. Companies like Eastman Chemical ($EMN), Huntsman Corporation ($HUN), and CVR Partners ($UAN) are all worth keeping an eye on. 

All of those companies (and many others) have been operating for the past several years in extremely challenging conditions (especially from competitors that have unfair advantages due to government subsidies). Now as the tide changes, those companies who have remained disciplined for the past decade could see enormous windfalls.

Second Order Profits

In the past, I've often talked about second and third order consequences in investing. Right now, as we see oil prices swing wildly, most investors are trying to scalp off profits from this crazy volatility. But the bigger picture we should all be looking at relates to what these price swings will effect.

Late last year, I explained in detail why oil was a major opportunity. Then, just a couple months ago, I went to Canada to make sure I was investing in the right oil and gas companies.

Now that we've seen oil and gas run up dramatically (as in, the biggest gain in trading history), I'm now already re-allocating into what I think will be next.

The war in Iran only strengthened my original thesis. The 15,000 chemical plants scattered across America aren’t just random pipe and tank facilities anymore. They’re strategic assets in a supply-constrained world, and the smartest specialty chemical companies are sitting right in the middle of the biggest margin expansion we’ve seen in years.

The opportunity is still hiding in plain sight. And there will be even more industries to be impacted very soon...

This blow torch of energy, which is fueled by more than a million cubic feet of natural gas per day, was originally man made... But now it's been forgotten.

I learned about this burning mystery a couple months ago at the Saddledome, home to the appropriately named Calgary Flames. Between puck drops and dome foam - which is beer said to have drug-like effects, due to insanely long beer tap tubes that run throughout the entire stadium to a central keg room - I was told this story.

Supposedly, just recently, a flaring well was rediscovered after decades of being unnoticed to the outside world.

Whether the flame has been burning continuously, or has been reignited by static electricity, it's clear that there is an unbelievable amount of natural gas supplying this one individual hole in the ground.

How this well got there, and why it was forgotten, was explained to me as we watched the hockey game.

Muskeg in Canada

Most people can't comprehend the vast amounts of rural land that exist within the borders of Canada.

In addition to it being the second largest country in the world, it's also one of the least densely populated. 

For perspective, Russia has nearly twice the population density of Canada even though it's landmass is nearly two times bigger. China is just a tiny bit smaller than Canada, but it's population density is 3,250% more. Of Canada's 3.5 million square miles of land, about 12% is peatlands, better known as "muskeg."

This geographical feature can be thought of as an arctic swamp, with the ground surface varying in stability depending on the weather. In the winter, large trucks and heavy equipment can be driven across some areas of frozen muskeg. In the summer, these same areas will swallow a truck whole and even trap wildlife like moose.

Far beneath the surface of Canadian muskeg regions lie enormous amounts of natural resources - mostly oil and gas. The problem is that it's near impossible to get these resources out of the ground.

In addition to heavy equipment being eaten up by the muskeg surface, transporting the oil and gas to its final destination is uneconomical. But that doesn't mean it hasn't been attempted.

If you look at aerial photos of the vast Canadian wilderness, you'll notice that there are thousands of miles of cutlines criss-crossing all over the place.

These manmade cutlines, which seem to have no beginning, end, or consistent pattern, appear to be mysterious crop circles from above. In actuality, these lines have been used for old roads, pipelines, logging, and oil and gas seismic surveys.

These seismic surveys are done by using small explosives, or trucks with vibrating plates, that send sound waves into the earth's surface.

These sound waves then reflect back off of different subterranean rock surfaces and are recorded by a geophone.

Multidimensional images are then created, similar to how an ultrasound can show a baby in a mother's stomach.

Based on the images produced, oil and gas companies can then decide if they should move forward with drilling exploratory wells.

And that, more or less, is how that random remote ball of fire ended up out in the middle of the Canadian muskeg.

That could be the end of the story... But if you're anything like me, all of this just raises more questions. How much of Canada hasn't been explored? Why isn't Canada capturing more of these resources?

And, of course: What opportunities are currently available for investors?

Let's dig in...

Rich Canada, Poor Canada

I don't want to focus too much on what has gone wrong in Canada. This chart sums it up nicely:

Maybe this should be a lesson to never elect someone who is the son of a communist dictator.

Fortunately for Canada, despite past missteps, they are not a resource poor island nation.

Instead, they are absurdly wealthy. When it comes to resources, Canada is ranked as the fourth wealthiest country in the world, and ranks second per capita. Whether it's timber, potash, gold, uranium, or oil and gas, Canada's resources rank near the top globally and add up to tens of trillions of dollars of value.

However, if you look at what makes up Canada's current GDP, you'll see a different story. Industries like social assistance and public administration have grown much larger than the extraction of natural resources. This trend correlates right in line with the stagnation of Canada's economic growth.

Source: CAPP

While this may be an infuriating development for Canadians (who are not on the government's dole), this is a massive opportunity for investors. 

Toonie for a Loonie

About a decade ago, in Northern Alberta, a small oil and gas company built a $450 million SAGD facility. Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is a technique where you pump steam into the ground to heat up bitumen.

This heated bitumen, which starts to act more like a liquid, eventually seeps through the ground to a lower well which is then pumped to the surface.

Source: CNRL

On paper, this $450 million project was projected to produce billions of dollars of heavy oil. But, the company went bankrupt before production was optimized and the facility got lost in a long legal process.

Fast forward to today and that same SAGD facility was acquired through an auction for a couple million dollars. And if this acquirer can get this facility up and running, they'll be looking at billions of dollars in returns over the coming decades.

We're talking about an investment that will generate a 50,000% return, or much higher if oil goes anywhere above where it is today. (And yes, you can invest in this company.)

The situation that is being set up in the entire oil and gas industry, and especially in Canada, is nothing short of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. No one is paying attention. 

The Pendulum Swingeth

Just a decade ago, there was a narrative that was widely accepted around the world:

Fossil fuels are terrible for the environment and the entire world is going to do everything possible to never use them again. By 2026, everyone will be driving an electric car, renewable energy sources will power our lives, and we'll never use carbon producing energy sources ever again. 

Governments around the world, especially in western nations, pushed their citizens hard with this agenda.

Huge subsidies for green energy projects and electric vehicles; vilification of gas stoves and traditional oil companies; and worst of all, massive under investment in exploration and infrastructure projects within the traditional fossil fuel sector.

What's coming next, in my opinion, is a dramatic swing back to reality. But this swing is just starting, and there is plenty of opportunity to position yourself now.

The broader energy market is still the least valued sector in the entire stock market, and when you look at the actual market cap, it's even more compelling. As of the beginning of 2026, the total market cap of the entire US energy sector makes up 2.3% of the S&P500. This is lower than the average of 6% over the past decade, and drastically lower than the ~30% during the 1980's. Said simply, energy is ignored and hated.

This is despite oil and gas demand increasing every year while investment into (and within) the industry is declining every year. This will all set up for a spectacular reversal. 

BNPL - Buy Now, Profit Later

The list of interesting energy companies could fill pages. But if you want to stop reading and get your hot stock pick, just buy ExxonMobil.

They are one of the best run companies in the world and are basically another arm of the US government - they're too big to fail. However, if you look a little deeper, especially in certain markets outside of the US, you'll find some oil companies trading for unbelievably low multiples.

Many of these companies, which are priced as if they were dead, are profitable and sitting on incredible amounts of reserves. This is especially true for Canadian oil and gas companies which often have proven reserves of 50 years or more.

That's why I recently visited Alberta and Saskatchewan, driving hundreds of miles a day, in -30F degree weather, dodging moose.

After visiting dozens of different oil and gas facilities and speaking with multiple different operators, I have a new understanding of one of the best value investment opportunities available today.

An Alberta crossing guard.

Before I mention any specific company, I want to make something clear: This is not a get rich quick trade and this may take several years to play out.

But when you contrast this situation's downside risk with today's market valuations and volatility, this stands out as the most compelling opportunity available in early 2026.

In addition to physically touring and viewing the facilities of many Canadian oil and gas companies, I also reviewed the books of dozens of different companies. While not a completely exhaustive list, here are some of the companies that I've taken a hard look at:

• Enbridge Inc.

• Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

• Suncor Energy Inc.

• TC Energy Corp.

• Imperial Oil Ltd.

• Cenovus Energy Inc.

• Pembina Pipeline Corp.

• Tourmaline Oil Corp.

• Whitecap Resources Inc.

• Keyera Corp.

• Plains All American

• Arc Resources Ltd.

• Ovintiv Inc.

• South Bow Corp.

• Peyto Exploration and Development Corp.

• Tamarack Valley Energy

• Gibson Energy Inc.

• Athabasca Oil Corp.

• Baytex Energy Corp.

• Enerflex Ltd.

• Freehold Royalties

• Paramount Resources Ltd.

• Vermillion Energy Inc.

• Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

• Advantage Energy Ltd.

• Precision Drilling Corp.

• Greenfire Resources

• Surge Energy Inc.

• Saturn Oil and Gas Inc.

• Obsidian Energy Ltd.

• Inplay Oil Corp.

• Falcon Oil and Gas Ltd.

• Petrus Resources Ltd.

• Hemispehere Energy Co.

• Gran Tierra Energy

• Yangarra Resources Ltd.

• Arrow Explorations Corp.

• Lycos Energy Inc.

Amongst this list of names are some companies I expect to grow at least 10x within the next 5 years.

There are also some companies that may go bankrupt, or be acquired for a discount, within the next 12 months.

For me, and for EEF, I am already allocating a large portion towards a select number of positions within this list. And I expect my holdings within this sector to eventually make up a majority of total AUM.

Distracted Sheep

About a month after I returned from Canada, I was fortunate enough to attend the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Aventura.

This conference is a who's who of the broader energy world and included everyone from Chevron's CFO to the US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright. Being in a room with these kinds of people makes you second guess your assumptions about energy in general.

Why would I, as a non-energy expert, have any better forecast or investing ideas than these giants of the energy industry? This feeling was especially true when it came to the attendance for certain presentations.

For example, when Chris Wright took the stage to speak, there were several hundred people in attendance with standing room only (and a full detail of US Secret Service).

Considering the US had captured Maduro just a couple days prior, the audience was especially interested to hear what the Energy Secretary had to say about the future of US (and Venezuelan) energy.

Meanwhile, in the same exact room at a different time, a fireside chat was held with some of Canada's top oil and gas companies. The same room that had been jam packed was now almost completely empty, except for myself and some sorry junior analyst interns taking notes.

Considering that this event wasn't even filmed, I wonder who these Canadian oil executives were even talking to? Just me?

If you were to ignore the valuations, charts, resource reserves, balance sheets, and every other metric of Canadian oil and gas companies, this picture alone would be interesting.

But when you combine all of these together, this opportunity becomes almost impossible to ignore.

For those of you who don’t know much about fantasy football, which was me prior to this year, the risk(s) of losing a league can be extreme. Most leagues are made up of a group of guys who know each other well. In other words, it’s a bunch of guys who relish the idea of seeing their best buddies suffer through humiliating punishments.

The penalty for losing the league I’m in isn’t really embarrassing… it’s just plain painful. Whichever 2-man team loses has to host the entire 24-man league at an all-day pool party at a local hotel casino. But the local casino is not some backwoods bingo parlor… Let’s just say that the losing team could probably buy a used car instead of the tab they’ll have to foot.

As I’ve recently learned, fantasy football has a lot of different variables. There is definitely skill involved when picking your initial team players, but there can also be just plain bad luck. For example, if multiple of your best players get injured in the beginning of the year, you can end up with a team that can barely win a single game.

As you can see from the below image, that is exactly what happened to one of the teams in the league I’m in. Some of the guys on other teams were making jokes that the odds of having a zero win season was probably higher than having a zero loss season.

Beyond the win-loss statistics, I find the ‘moves’ category as the most interesting data point to look at. The moves are the number of trades that a specific team makes throughout the season. You can see that the highest number of moves were made mostly by the losing teams.

This makes sense as these losing teams were panicking towards the end of the season, trying to do anything to avoid that terrifying pool-party bill.

Interestingly, and as you probably assumed, most of the guys in this league are in finance. Some work at major hedge funds, others are in real estate, and some manage their own money. Regardless, they all know about risk and the value of owning high quality assets.

Ironically, these same guys also know that choosing high quality assets means you avoid picking a football team that is made up of a few superstars and a bunch of bench players. The team that can last a whole season is much more important than a team that could face annihilation if just a few of their star players get hurt.

Quality and Quantity

I know that you know where I’m going with this story about fantasy football and how it relates to investing.

But we all need to hear it, especially in today’s markets.

The reality is that our world is moving so fast that we all have a visceral feeling to keep up a breakneck pace. The access and frequency of information feeds we’re exposed creates mountains of overwhelming data.

This data motivates us to make daily changes to adjust to a world that appears to be rapidly shifting. And if we don’t make those changes, we face potentially catastrophic risks.

This is taking place in all ares of life, where public sentiment about various topics have done complete 360’s. One example is how politics in the US have drastically morphed into bizarre scenarios where we see the far left and the far right uniting on several topics. This is akin to cats and dogs finding some middle ground of harmony - something that was unthinkable just a few years ago.

Similar scenarios are developing in the investing world where certain styles of capital allocation, say value investing or options traders, are switching up their strategies. You know that something has changed when Berkshire Hathaway is buying Google and Michael Burry has just given up.

What Season Are We In?

When it comes to fantasy football, we know that the season is coming to an end. The winners and losers will be determined and plans for next year’s season will soon be made.

In the investing world, it’s obvious that we’re in the "AI season.” Beyond the non-stop headlines of how our world will be changed by the implementation of artificial intelligence, financial market valuations are heavily skewed towards tech companies.

There’s no doubt that this AI season is extremely important. Certainly on par with previous transformative technologies like the railroad, electricity, or the internet, and probably the most important technology season we’ve ever experienced.

But where we are within this AI season is undetermined.

Late AI Season Vibes

Is it time to be frantically making financial trades, like that last place fantasy football team, in order to avoid losing? Do these trades mean allocating more towards AI? Or should these trades be diversifying out of AI? Today there are powerful arguments for both sides.

From a valuation perspective, it’s clear that AI associated companies are at, or are at least near, full valuations. That’s assuming that forward growth continues to maintain its current trajectory and doesn’t augment up or down.

But simultaneous to the ever-increasing value of AI companies, the opposite is happening in other sectors of the market - sectors that may end up getting more impacted by AI than the AI companies themselves.

These are the second order impacts of artificial intelligence. The companies that have successfully been providing products and services for decades without the assistance of AI. Manufacturing, healthcare, consumer products, transportation, energy, and more.

Many of these companies are actually declining in value due to investor capital being sucked up by the major tech players. These same companies that are becoming less expensive are in fact the ones that stand to have the biggest long term benefits, and are no where near being properly valued once they successfully integrate this new technology into their operations.

Even more, the fully valued AI companies that continue to release increasingly sophisticated products are leaving the rest of the market behind in development progress. New faster, smarter, better versions of various AI products are being launched faster than the second order customers can implement this new tech.

This, I fear, is what will catalyze the end of this AI season.

Silver Lined Transformation

To avoid any misunderstanding, here is what I am saying: The compute power that is being brought to market is beyond what the market currently needs.

This scenario is a textbook boom-bust example of supply and demand economics.

In this AI season, there have already been booms in multiple different tech companies… they’re still booming. Meanwhile, the busts have been everywhere as seen by the underperformance of nearly the entire market beyond the Mag 7 (or whatever they’re called now).

Companies and industries that have been historically bogged down in process and/or data minutiae are about to be completely transformed for the better. These are the same companies that have been recently underperforming.

Healthcare is one example of an industry set to be drastically changed for the better. Incredibly, some of the best health insurance, biotech, medical device, and medical care facilities are trading for single digit multiples with little-to-no debt and enormous demographic tailwinds.

These second order companies are the players you should have on your team to finish out the season.

That’s why I just returned from Canada. To check out the most obvious second order industry that this AI season has somehow forgotten: energy. More on that very soon.

Considering that 2025 has been the year of lower alcohol consumption and less sex (correlation there?), you'd think leverage would follow a similar trend. You'd be wrong.

Although social debauchery during this period of late-stage-Roman-vibes is amongst us, the majority of irresponsible behavior has mostly shifted to financial markets. The period of sexual promiscuity and substance abuse did have a good run for the past couple of decades, to be fair.

Perhaps today's addiction to leverage and gambling can be blamed on governments and central banks setting bad examples? If the entities responsibly for monetary policy are being reckless, why shouldn't the market participants act in the same way?

Or maybe it's a different problem altogether: Those seeking economic advancement know of no other route, other than taking on increased risk to make exponential gains.

A recent WSJ article titled, "The Economy That’s Great for Parents, Lousy for Their Grown-Up Kids" encompassed the situation quite well. It's near impossible for younger generations to view, let alone achieve, the economic success of their boomer parents...

Unless you gamble and use leverage.

YOLO, Send It

This was the subtopic of a speech I gave at a family office gathering in Dallas recently. The access and variety of new audacious financial products is dizzying.

The menu of items being offered to satiate current 'send it' demands include:

• The introduction of 5x leveraged ETF's, some of which are being launched by the appropriately named company Leverage Shares.

• The rapid growth of prediction markets, a la Polymarket, Kalshi, and various other platforms. My favorite recent bets, I mean predictions, relate to the number of seconds Trump will shake hands with Zelensky, Xi, and other world leaders.

• The offerings across multiple different crypto platforms, which now offer 50x leverage and above. Recently this has led to many billions of dollars being liquidated during relatively low periods of market volatility.

At the risk of stating an obvious prediction, I'll say it anyway: Whatever catalyzes the next financial pullback will almost certainly be traced back to betting, often times with leverage.

But it's not just betting in the obvious sense. Many of today's investments, although not considered explicit bets, are in fact horribly positioned to achieve what their values suggest.

Of the top ten largest publicly traded companies in the world - all currently worth more than $1 trillion, each - none of them have a P/E less than 27. Several of these companies have a P/E over 50, and one has a P/E of nearly 300.

Without explosive earnings growth for many of these companies it would take decades, or even hundreds of years, for earnings to match their price.

This is not to say that companies can't grow into their valuations - price to earnings should not be the only metric to measure a company's potential future value. But this is to question whether the world's largest companies can grow into their valuations, which require decades of explosive earnings growth to justify their current valuation.

How can the world's largest companies maintain aggressive growth for years to come? EACH of those top ten valued companies are currently larger than the GDP of nearly 180 countries.

An investment in a highly valued mega-cap company is no different than a leveraged bet on a low odds gamble. 

But AI is going to eat the world, right? Right!?

It's All Better Than the Dollar?

One recent investment narrative has been the 'debasement trade.' This strategy seemed to go mainstream for the past couple months, as gold and silver were ripping higher. But for anyone who knows about Jekyll Island, that trade has been in play for the past century.

However, the debasement trade isn't just about precious metals. It's about the entire stock market, cryptocurrencies, and anything else you can think of that might outpace the purchasing power of the dollar. (And the euro, yen, peso, etc.)

Did the recent surge in pandemic-era spurred inflation create a scenario where individuals are willing to bet on the future value of anything other than fiat money?

And in placing these bets did risk assets get over-weighted allocation when compared to traditional safe haven assets?

I believe the answer is 'yes' to all of that.

Leverage or Poverty

Is it possible that analyzing company valuations and productivity metrics is missing the forest for the trees?

We're concerned about a couple of trees that have bark beetles instead of watching an arsonist igniting the entire forest.

15 year car loans, 50 year home mortgages, and the end of quantitative tightening should give us some clues. The can is only getting kicked harder and it's likely that leverage will only increase.

Until it can't.

I said that when I suggested that selling your metals for oil may not be a crazy idea. And now, just a week later, I'm seeing more reasons to believe that is true.

Obviously I don't want to get stuck in the recency bias trap. Perhaps my brain is subconsciously ignoring obvious information in favor of focusing on data that supports my bullish outlook on oil?

That could certainly by true, but to be clear I'm not specifically bullish on oil on its own. I'm bullish on oil relative to the value and trend of other stores of wealth.

It's likely that we're a bit early for this entire situation. I'm usually too early to most trends, which has included uranium, silver, psychedelics, longevity, and even bitcoin.

Despite my quasi-self-deprecation about economic forecasts, the Explorer Equity Fund is up double digits this year and I am now pursuing the rotational strategy which I am writing about here.

The Relative Oil Bull

The only industries I'd consider myself an expert in have to do with the ocean - mostly surfing. When it comes to almost all investing sectors, I'm more of a generalist.

Knowing that, I would never try to forecast the specific price, supply, or demand of oil. There are far too many levers - too many variables - for anyone to accurately predict the oil market in the short run.

But I would make a directional bet that oil will be more expensive, in less supply, and in greater demand sometime in the near future.

This directional bet has hardly ever been wrong in any 10 year time period since oil has been a major global commodity. The combination of fiat inflation, ever increasingly difficult oil extraction, and increased demand through energy consumption almost guarantees this continued trend for at least all of our lifetimes.

The same concept, with different value drivers, could be applied to gold, real estate, art, or any other wealth preserving asset that has agreed upon value across multiple generations.

Bitcoin, I would argue, has not yet been agreed upon by multiple generations.

Understanding all of this, it would be implied that there are two ways to invest in oil: hold it forever or trade the multi-year fluctuations. Since I don't have a SPR tank in my backyard, I'll choose the fluctuations strategy.

Oil's Relatives

Last week I talked about how gold has completely decoupled from oil. They've basically divorced for now, until their eventual remarriage in the coming years.

But it's not just the relationship between oil and gold that is interesting. US equities are also screaming something to us right now.

As you can see in the chart above, the S&P500 (orange) has resumed it's upwards trend since Liberation Day.

Meanwhile, oil (blue) has seen a gradual decline. While the above image may not suggest any specific trend or relation, the below chart is shockingly similar.

Prior to the dot com bubble, the S&P500 and oil diverged in a strangely similar way as today's situation. Even more interesting is that both of these diverging scenarios were preceded by a large oil price shock in the decade prior (1990 and 2008).

These two oil shocks, in 1990 and 2008, are noteworthy because this is when large capital expenditures went into oil production and infrastructure. After these periods of large capex deployment, which brings on more supply, little-to-no additional capex is deployed for many years.

Just like any boom-bust industry, low prices are the cure for low prices. The question, based on everything above is: What happened after the divergence of oil and the S&P500 in the years after 2000?

chart sources: MacroTrends

As you can see in this historical chart, the oil rebound was quick to eventually catch up to the S&P500 before both sold off around ~2002. And then, oil went on to annihilate the performance of equities. Of course there are plenty of, 'but that time was different because of X, Y, and Z' explanations. But there are also many similarities, which include:

• The underinvestment in oil/gas

• The over stretching of most equity valuations

• The timeframe in which equity valuations stretched relative to oil price stagnation

• The artificial increase and decrease of central bank rate policy

• The increase in monetary supply

And the most important aspect of all: Humans are irrational, emotional psychopaths who cannot stop chasing shiny objects. Right now, oil is not the shiny object.

The Painful Trade

As I've previously stated, the 'sell everything and go into oil trade' is not to be pursued haphazardly.

Cheap oil seems to be a top priority for the current Trump administration, even if that means getting a once-sanctioned Latin American country back on line (through intimidation or brute force).

But even if a country with some of the world's largest oil reserves reenters the global oil supply pool, there are still sectors within the petroleum industry that are interesting.

The services, pipelines, refineries, transporters, chemicals, and equipment that are vital to turning dinosaur bones into fuel are incredibly inexpensive right now... relative to everything else.      

The reasons are numerous and obvious for those who are happily sitting on their hands, watching their portfolio's rise in value by 2% per day. We all know this won't last forever.

At some point the euphoria will end. Other things will become too cheap, and the rotation will be quick and dramatic.

But we're not there yet.

The mania that longtime metals investors are witnessing is likely to go on for longer than you think. Remember, the normies are just now hearing about gold reaching $4,000 per ounce, even though you've already seen your gold value rise by more than 50% YTD.

For silver, it's been a gain of 60% YTD. And for my favorite, which I have been shouting about for the past several years, platinum is up over 80% YTD.

So, now what?

The Painful Sell

I recently saw a poll online that asked investors about what was the hardest to sell: A stock that is going up or a stock that is going down.

Overwhelmingly, the poll showed that over 80% of investors found it harder to sell an investment that was ascending in value.

It's a strange human nature trait to always want more than you'll ever have. That probably comes from our caveman instinct to stockpile resources because you never know what will happen tomorrow.

When it comes to investing, striving for ever higher gains usually results in a rollercoaster ride of net worth. Ask me how I know... I've ridden the up-down value ride more than I'd care to admit.

Just like many hard lessons in life, it's been a very valuable experience. I've learned that you never lose money selling for a profit. That's not to say that you shouldn't let your winners run. Just that you're far more likely to lose money in life if you don't leave a little meat on the bone for others.

That's what I did this week. I started to trim my metals positions despite anticipating a possibly violent run up in the coming months. Which likely applies to nearly ever mineral that you can pull out of the ground.

But there is something else you can pull out of the ground that is surprisingly cheap.

The Painful Buy

Being a good investor - someone who can consistently make money over a long period of time, and call it their full time job - is extremely difficult.

That's why so few people do it... they can't. It's intellectually and emotionally exhausting.

The even harder challenge of being a full time investor is the feeling of being alone and laughed at. Almost every great trade or investment looks crazy before it works.

With that said, let me present this chart to you:

Source: MacroTrends

When I see data like this, I salivate. I love extremes and outliers. It's what makes the world interesting and investing lucrative. 

Let me first say that the largest spike in the chart doesn't count. That was the pandemic spike, where gold mooned and oil went negative.

It was an anomaly that is somewhat irrelevant to the longer term trend (but if you had actually sold all of your gold to buy as much oil as possible, you would have done quite well).

What you're looking at is the gold to oil ratio. Excluding the pandemic spike I just mentioned, this ratio has never been this extreme. Not even close. It's possible and even probable that this ratio will get even more extreme, which means even greater opportunity.

Sell your precious metals for oil?!

Maybe not all at once. Just make sure you get off the rollercoaster at some point.    

This was back in 2012 in Panama. At the time, I was investing in land in a remote area of the country where the nearest bank branch was an hour from where I was staying.

I have dozens of nightmare stories dealing with banks from around the world. But one afternoon with Miss Piggy tops them all.

She was my 'personal banker' at this bank branch that was in the town of Las Tablas. There was nothing personal about her. She looked exactly like Miss Piggy at about five feet tall and 200 pounds. Her fake eyelashes were so obscenely long that they weighed down her eye lids. Her makeup was so thick that it's possible she was hiding a freshly shaven face. And she was a bitch.

It was if she was intentionally making business difficult for me. She probably was. I was the new gringo in town that represented everything she hated about what was happening in her world.

One afternoon, after meeting with her multiple times to complete a wire transaction, she decided to really screw me over. She emailed me informing me that I have to sign 'one last KYC document' in order to complete the money send.

She Was Setting Me Up

I arrived to the bank and we went back in forth in Spanglish. She finally presented me the document to sign, which I promptly did. Within a second of me lifting the pen off of the paper, she grabbed the document and asked if I was done signing. Yes, I responded.

She quickly grabbed a file that included a copy of my passport and looks up at me. She said, "Lo siento, su firma no coincide con la firma de su pasaporte."

I stared back at her, not understanding what she was actually getting at. "Olvidaste el punto," she said.

I didn't dot the "i" in my last name in my signature, which didn't match my passport signature.

She then proceeded to cancel the wire transfer and put a freeze on my entire bank account. Then, to put the cherry on top, she informed me that I have to physically visit the bank headquarters in Panama City in order to remove the freeze. Which was a six hour drive away.

This story may sound unrealistic and fabricated. But go ask anyone who has banked in Latin America. It's a nightmare to put it politely.

LatAm Banks Suck

Whether it's the drug cartels, US FATCA regulations, corruption, or just ancient technology, the entire banking sector in Latin America is ripe for disruption.

It's not uncommon to see lines of people outside of banks when you visit countries like Colombia, Brazil, or even Mexico. Simple tasks, like getting your paycheck, often require a multi-hour wait in a line to get your money.

The entire banking industry in this region is built upon bureaucracy, paperwork, and in many cases bribery.

And it's not just the inconvenience of it all. It's also bad for the local economies.

When you have inefficient banks, you have inefficient markets. Things like home loans, vehicle loans, and retail investing are not only cumbersome but also extremely expensive.

That's one of the reasons why Latin American real estate tends to be much less expensive than other parts of the world. It's so difficult and costly to get a home loan that it drives real estate prices down.

But this is all changing in real time. The collision of the internet, smart phones, and crypto are about to massively disrupt banking in LatAm and around the world.

Crypto Saves LatAm?

In a recent fund update, I explained how stable coins will massively disrupt the banking system. I also mentioned that financial services in emerging markets are especially well positioned to exploit this situation.

The synopsis is that modern banking solutions will involve peer to peer transactions that use superior technology. This will result in less centralization, lower fees, and generally less friction for commerce.

For the individual this saves time, money, and frustration. For the local economy this unleashes commerce to flow more efficiently.

For traditional banks, especially those that don't embrace this technology, this spells disaster. But for some new finance companies, this is all a huge opportunity... And we can invest in this.

Hidden in Plain Sight

The easiest, and most simple way to get exposure to the rapidly growing world of stable coins is to simply own cryptocurrencies that facilitate these transactions. (The explanation of that, and how I believe the US dollar will see even further adoption into the future, will have to be saved for another day.)

Another way to gain exposure to this LatAm financial disruption trend is to invest in companies that leverage these new technologies. Two that stick out right now are Nu Holdings ($NU) and DLocal ($DLO). 

Both of these companies are aggressively implementing pro-crypto initiatives, and even more importantly, making financial transactions throughout Latin America much easier. That's why they have both been growing at incredible rates and just crushed their most recent earnings reports. As I write this, $NU is up 10% while $DLO is up over 30%, on the day.

What's even more interesting is their TAM and valuation. Both companies, when compared to traditional banks, have barely penetrated their markets. And when you look at their valuation, they are a fraction of what a 'normal fast growing tech company' usually has.

The Crypto Resistance

In the middle of writing this post I had lunch with a good friend of mine who runs a major investment fund. After shooting the shit about how hard it is to be parent we naturally started talking about AI and crypto. Because that's what you talk about when you're a middle aged parent, right?

His take on crypto is that it's a volatile, speculative, mostly worthless asset class. Of course, I tried to argue this for about 30 seconds before giving up. It's tough to debate someone who manages ten figures.

But that's the opportunity for those who see what is going on here.

Most people associate crypto with speculative gamblers who are trading internet money for drugs. 

In reality, major publicly traded financial companies are embracing crypto and crushing their earnings reports.

They're coming for you Miss Piggy!

Bitcoin

December 2024 prediction: "Bitcoin continues to surprise." Welp, this was an easy one. I've been writing about Bitcoin since, well, I started writing about investing. Like many early adopters, I have my own 'lost it all story.' Anyway, it's clear that Bitcoin is here to stay. The real question is how much should you be owning right now (relative to your worth, of course). I don't have that answer. That's because I've found that my number was far too low than what I should have had. Ironically, I've also found that my number was far too high for most people to stomach. Personal situation aside, Bitcoin has certainly continued to surprise. That's mostly because the only thing that has been more surprising than the current ATH of Bitcoin (around $118k, as I write this), is the global addiction fiat currency.

Healthcare

December 2024 prediction: "Healthcare bottoms." Last month I had my third child and was reminded about how broken the US healthcare system is. (Baby is all good, thanks for asking.) I don't fault medical professionals directly; they're mostly incredible people. It's the system that they operate in that is incredibly bureaucratic, confusing, and in need of a top-to-bottom overhaul. This has, perhaps not too surprisingly, driven the valuation of many healthcare companies to incredibly low valuations. In fact, the entire healthcare sector is on track to have the third consecutive year of under performing the S&P500... by ~20% EACH YEAR! No wonder the Wall Street Journal is now calling some health insurers uninvestable:

Source: WSJ

'Something uninvestable?!' This is like music to a contrarian investor's ears. You often hear the most outrageous things about industries - both at their height or bottom - right before they reverse course. Two such examples are UnitedHealth and Centene, both of which I'm taking a serious look at. Centene is especially interesting, as it's currently holding the same amount of cash on its books as the entire company's market cap. That's not to mention they still have growing revenue and a P/E under 5. But hey, who knows. Maybe the healthcare sector is entirely broken and these companies will never come back. Maybe the fall of US health insurance companies is part of the Fourth Turning? Maybe.

U.S. Dollar

December 2024 prediction: "The U.S. dollar weakens." The USD's record decline for the first half of 2025 seems to have surprised everyone. This is despite the fact that the sitting US President literally stated, multiple times, that he wanted to weaken the USD. Most people get up in arms with the thought of a weaker dollar. It's as if the strength of the currency directly correlates to the strength of the nation. In reality, a weaker currency actually makes the US a more competitive trading partner on the world stage. Also, the current decline in the dollar's strength is relative to other currencies. People forget that ALL of the currencies are screwed relative to hard assets (and Bitcoin). As tempted as I am to go on a tangent about the USD and unfolding global currency wars, I'll refrain. It's entirely possible that the DXY will reverse course this year, or slow down in its weakening trend. But remember that this trend is really a distraction from the larger purchasing power trend, which has a course set in stone.

Energy

December 2024 prediction: "Energy becomes a safe haven." Priced in inflation adjusted USD terms, oil seems to be trading almost perfectly. That is, if you believe that the lifeblood of all of our economies shouldn't have any sort of premium priced in.

For the most part, I have not gotten this prediction correct. But I still believe that through the later half of 2025 and into 2026, some investors will begin to move their speculative wins into more secure areas. Energy is still the cheapest sector within US markets with a forward P/E of 12, and has the highest yield of 4.5%. Interesting.

A.I.

December 2024 prediction: "An A.I. play bursts." It's a good thing I didn't short any A.I. companies. Not that I use shorts anyway. Just board shorts. Now, in the middle of 2025, I'm not sure where I stand with this prediction. Maybe A.I. euphoria will continue for a while? I mean, it's perfectly normal that Nvidia's market cap is currently 3.7% of GLOBAL GDP, right?

Emerging Markets

December 2024 prediction: "Certain emerging markets shine." Of the four countries that I specifically mentioned, here is how they have performed YTD:

• Greece ($GREK): +57%

• Brazil ($EWZ): +21%

• UK ($EWU): +18%

• Canada ($EWC): +14%

Yes, I know the UK and Canada are not emerging markets. They are DEmerging markets. Anywho, there's likely a lot more upside in many different countries around the world to come. That's especially true if the dollar continues to weaken and investors realize the value proposition in commodities.

U.S. Markets

December 2024 prediction: "U.S. valuations begin to normalize." I was wrong. Very, very wrong here. U.S. markets are now insanely overvalued. Literally more than they have ever been. Total market cap to GDP ratio is now at 209%. And we're likely going MUCH higher. Soon, we'll begin to hear many more rationalizations for why currently high (and higher) valuations make sense. For example, the market cap to GDP ratio is out of date because many U.S. companies are generating revenue outside of the country, which means that their contribution to the total market cap is accounted for without accounting for the foreign economy's GDP they are selling into. Or something like that...

New Predictions for the Mid-Year

I have more predictions than I have time to write. Three kids is no joke. But, there are two ideas that I think about a lot right now:

1. Mining companies are digging up metals that seem to be increasing in price everyday. At the same time, those companies energy costs (especially diesel) are remaining surprisingly low. Considering that mining company's energy costs are up to 40% of their operating expenses, there may be some incredible earnings coming out over the next couple of quarters.

2. Small and mid cap tech companies in emerging markets are very interesting right now. Two examples are Nu Bank ($NU) and dLocal ($DLO). Their valuations are very reasonable, they have tremendous demographic tailwinds, and their TAM is barely penetrated.

Lastly, did anyone catch my call from what I wrote in June? The silver metals are ripping, and hardly anyone is talking about them.

I made this speech last September, in 2024, at a small event in Washington D.C. The audience was a couple dozen family offices and private investors, who were all looking to grow their wealth while avoiding unnecessary risk.

I spoke for about 40 minutes, covering everything from geopolitics and how they will be affecting global macro trends, to platinum and why it was my number one risk-reward investment idea at the time.

After the presentation, an older man approached me and asked how he could invest in platinum. I said, "Just like I said in the presentation. Just go with the safe play and hold on for a couple years."

"That's it?" he said.

"Yes. That's it," I responded. "Of course, there are all kinds of ways to get fancy with the trade to juice your returns. But, if you want limited downside risk with great upside exposure, just buy what I shared in the presentation."

I just received an email from him earlier this week.

You Can Lead a Horse to Water

Summarized, the email said, 'Hey Cody, I never bought $PPLT when we talked in Washington D.C. Do you think it's too late?'

I didn't respond to him. Not because I didn't want to, but because I don't give individual investment advice. Legally, I can't (actually, I can, but I don't unless it's a client). And honestly, I'm not in the business of giving people hot stock picks.

Sure, I like to talk about investment ideas, specific companies, and big trends. It helps me go through all of the analysis motions and forces me to write out what I'm actually thinking.

But I learned a long time ago that trying to help investors perfectly time the purchase of a specific stock, and when to sell that stock, just never works.

I still get emails to this day about investing opportunities that I wrote about 10 years ago. Sometimes these emails are complaints about certain strategies that are completely out of date and irrelevant. It's as if some people expect an idea that I wrote about in 2017 to be applicable today in 2025.

Today, I mostly write about ideas that are in an uptrend, entering a new thematic, or have some sort of unique value. If I can hit all three at the same time, then that's when I know I've found something special.

Then, I can dive deeper on my own, into specific companies that fit into a trend, theme, and/or value profile. I hope that you are doing the same thing on your own.

If you can't, or just have the time, you should be letting someone else manage your money. Pick people who are unique thinkers, have a great track record, and who you trust. Many times, even if you love investing and have some great ideas, it's really a better idea to let someone else do the trading for you. This is especially true if your full time job is something other than being a full time investor.

Anyway, back to the situation that exists in platinum right now...

Trend, Theme, & Value

Over the years, I've written about platinum many times - most recently in February of this year.  I've gone in depth before, but the gist is that it's totally reasonable for platinum to increase in price by 300% or more.

That's not necessarily a prediction, but just a assumption if the platinum price was to catch up to gold. Platinum, until very recently, has been trading around $1,000/oz while gold is now well over $3,000/oz. Platinum is more rare than gold and has traditionally traded for a higher price than gold. Pretty simple logic here.

Over the past couple of weeks platinum has finally started to wake up. As I write this, the silver metal is now up over 40% YTD and I think there is a lot more room to run. Many platinum miners are up over 100% in just the past couple of months.

But this story isn't just about the investment opportunity in platinum. It's about a bigger trend, a bigger theme, and a search for value.

Super Storm of Change

Earlier this month I discussed the major changes that are unfolding in the US and global economy. The specific investment opportunities are a bit nuanced, but the general trend, theme, and focus on value is crystal clear to me.

I mentioned, "...investors will panic rotate out of highly valued positions into undervalued safe havens. This rotation, which has barely started, is likely to accelerate in terrifying ways for those who chose to ignore the clear warning signs."

Platinum's recent price surge is just one example of this trend unfolding. In that same post, I mentioned numerous other assets that are likely to explode in price in the coming years.

To be clear, this period of change is not necessarily an anomaly. Instead, it's more of a reversion back to the mean.

Adapting to Change

Changing your mind is one of the most difficult things to do. It can also be a career risk. 

My good friend, who is a former US Congressman, used to tell me how angry his constituents would get when he'd flip-flop on a controversial topic. Ordinarily, when you're presented with new information it's very rational to change your opinion. But the outside perception can make you look indecisive or even unprincipled.

Similar to sailing,  investing is a discipline where you should change your mind constantly.

I haven't changed my mind with platinum, yet. But if the current upward price trend continues for too long, I'll certainly be trimming the sails.

Fedspeak Principles

This reminds me of Ray Dalio's book Principles. He explains structures that you can make your brain work around, but nothing really actionable. Maybe that's why Bridgewater has under-performed the market as of lately? (jk, Ray, you're the GOAT of raising money.) Another example is when I wrote about "fedspeak" in June of 2016, nearly a decade ago: "The other day, Yellen made the same speech that she has always given; and that is, we have no idea what she said. Like Bernanke, and especially Greenspan, she has the ability to talk at length about nothing." What I'm getting at is that many predictions, especially if filled with big words and complex theories, can be headline worthy but hardly actionable. If you've read this far, I applaud you. The irony is not lost on me, nor should it be lost by you, that I am writing in such a manner which is identical to what I am complaining about. And that's the beauty of investing, writing, and life. You can be presented with all of the information in the world, explained in a variety of poetic analogies... Then after all of that, you can still screw it all up.

The Canary is Dead

The canary in the coal mine is typically attributed to John Scott Haldane. He discovered that small, warm-blooded animals succumb to carbon monoxide poisoning faster than humans. Meanwhile, the Austrians were likely using those small yellow birds as early as the late 1600's when going under ground. The rationale is quite simple - if the bird in the tiny cage dies, it's time to get out of the mine. Usually killed by carbon monoxide, the death of a canary was just a preview of what was to come for miners if they didn't soon get fresh air. It's tempting to use this saying - canary in a coal mine - often in the investing world. But there are really only a few times when you can look at something and say with certainty, "we're in big trouble." These times almost always relate to macro observations that apply to the broader economy. On their own, equities, real estate, and politics will not cause enormous problems within an economy. Of course it's fun to talk about how the eventual collapse of tech valuations may spread into other parts of the market. Or how a country's president may crater an economy. And when it comes to real estate, people have been talking about crazy prices for thousands of years. But none of those things are as important as the cost of credit.

Two Trend Changes

What's currently unfolding in the US bond market in nothing short of historic. Without knowing anything about financial charting, bonds, or what's going on in today's economy, anyone can spot what is going on in the chart below:

It's crystal clear that the pattern has changed. The previous downward direction, constrained by two trend lines, has broken the top trend line.

Without looking at the reasons (yet) of what has caused this change, it's tempting to want to forecast what comes next. Ignoring what this chart actually represents, even a child would likely guess that this line is headed in an upward direction for the foreseeable future. This is especially true if you look at what happened before the last change in treasury yield direction.

Ignoring the blow off top in treasury yields during the early 1980's, the run up in treasury yields prior and the decline in yields post are nearly identical in time - 35 years for each cycle. This up-down trend, which is about the entire lifespan of a human being, is difficult for the human brain to put into context. It's hard to relate your personal situation to trends that can take over a lifetime to play out. Looking at the historical trend of interest rates over the past several hundred years, the cyclical nature is easy to spot.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Other than the boom-bust credit cycle, which we often see in the mining industry, the historical downward trend in interest rates is notable. It's easy to see that we've bottomed out, leaving us with three options for interest rates:

1. Bounce off the bottom and start their ascent higher

2. Continue to decline and get well into negative rate territory

3. Bounce along a close-to-zero environment

Regardless of which of these three unfold, this is the 'second change' in interest rates that is most important.

Beyond Rising Rates

Where interest rates are headed next is much less important than how we get there. Sure, there are far more arguments for why rates will surge rather than retreat. It really comes down to the reckless spending and blatant disregard for simple budget balancing of nearly every government in the world. While it's tempting to point the finger at politicians from every side of the aisle, the reality is that the people are the ones to blame. Politicians know that if they even whisper about austerity measures, they'll be dragged out of office before the next election. That's why the point of financial resolution will only be achieved through crisis. Unlike historical crises that materialized from financial mismanagement and usually involved armed conflict, the crisis of the future may be one that is hard to feel. In fact, it's likely that we're already in this crisis, and the majority of people being effected can barely feel anything.

The loss of purchasing power of the US dollar has long been a trend that most are familiar with. Artificially manipulating a currency's supply is a hallmark characteristic of a late stage fiat currency. Throw in some central bank interest rate horseplay, and you have the perfect setup for a silent crisis. Rates going higher to account for riskier debtors pales in comparison to what those debtors will do to keep the game going.

The New Silent Crisis Trade

Fueled by cheap money, the US tech industry has absolutely boomed over the past couple of decades. This is most obvious as seen by the performance of the NASDAQ, which has mostly been the recipient of investors looking to park their money in fast growing companies. This trade - trading your fiat currency for shares of tech companies - has been a clear winner. In a low interest rate environment, that sees short-cycled rate gyrations trending lower, speculative non-tangible hyper-scalable assets can perform extremely well. Conversely, industries such as energy and mining, which are almost the exact opposite, have suffered over the past several years. These companies have had their valuations depressed and the substances they produce are at historically low values relative to tech equities. This trend will reverse. And it's already started.

The Gold Canary

As we watch the historic shift in interest rates, we're also seeing gold skyrocket. It's a logical series of events, where investors would rather park their capital in a time tested safe haven asset (gold), rather than see their value inflated away into thin air. But it's not just gold that is set to benefit from this new era of rising interest rates and grotesque government financial management. Nearly every commodity, unleveraged physical asset, and historically undervalued sector is likely to boom in the coming years. That's because investors will panic rotate out of highly valued positions into undervalued safe havens. This rotation, which has barely started, is likely to accelerate in terrifying ways for those who chose to ignore the clear warning signs. Oil, gas, coal, copper, uranium, nickel, foods, and many more building blocks of the modern world will see tremendous demand in the coming future. Investors will crave tangible assets that they feel can weather an inflationary storm. Perhaps one of the most interesting situations is what's unfolding in the gold, silver, and platinum markets. Gold, which has recently broken out to new highs, is typically passed (on a percentage basis) by silver and platinum. Yet, neither of those silver colored metals has caught up yet.

Red = Gold; Blue = Silver; Purple = Platinum

For now, gold is the outlying performer. Is this an anomaly or a clear canary in the coalmine? Perhaps we should look at Bitcoin for clues...  

-Lenin

I don't particularly like quoting Lenin, but I can't think of a better way to explain the past month.

That's both globally and personally.

It's been challenging to keep up with world affairs and market fluctuations. The changes are happening so frequently, and quickly, that it's hard not to get distracted.

Like a lion trying to focus on a dazzle of galloping zebras.

To combat this confusion, myself and two buddies decided to take the opposite approach. Instead of diving into the melee of turmoil, we trekked away from it all.

Starting in the coffee district of Colombia, we hiked for several days (with a professional guide) until we summited one of the highest mountains in the region, at over 17,000'.

Although it wasn't the highest peak I've ever summited, it was certainly one of the most difficult.

The normal switchback trails that climbers usually use to ascend a mountain were nowhere to be seen.

Instead, we were presented with a straight beeline climb up vertical rocky outcroppings, volcanic sand, and a massive glacier face.

Similar to the movie 180 Degrees South, we were "conquerors of the useless."

That is, our end goal was just as meaningless as the start of our adventure.

But I guess it's the journey that counts?

After returning from Colombia to catch up with my family, I then took a quick two day trip to Austin, Texas.

In an underground brewery from the mid-1800's, I hosted a dinner along with Austin Brawner (we publish the weekly Adventure Capitalist podcast / YouTube together).

Despite the freezing Austin temperatures, we were only able to host half of the people who reached out.

Chelsea, who many of you know, was able to record one of my impromptu speeches and transcribe it into an article that you can read here. (TL;DR = US is the best country in the world, but it's expensive AF. Other countries are cheap as sheeet, so take your pick. Long story short, buy BTC.)

After Austin, it was off to Mar-a-Lago.

Do any of you recognize the guy in the middle of the picture below? He's the former CEO of one of Explorer's first very profitable investments.

He invited me to Whitehouse South, so I of course joined.

And, as usual, I was under-dressed... but the secret service still let me in.

Just in case you were wondering what picture is inside the men's bathroom at Mar-a-Lago...

I'm off to Denver tomorrow. That should wrap up my chaotic February.

Our dinner, in an underground brewery from the mid-1800's, in Austin, Texas.

Why America is Still the Best Place to Invest—And Where to Look for Opportunities Abroad

For the past 20 years, I’ve been on a mission—traveling the world, hunting for overlooked opportunities, and putting boots on the ground to find real value. I’ve walked the streets of major cities and remote jungles, seeing firsthand what’s working and what’s not.

The U.S. is still the best place to do business, by a long shot (trust me, I have the battle scars to prove it!).

But let’s be real—it’s also incredibly expensive right now. If you want to maximize your investments, you've got to look beyond overvalued US markets.

The U.S. Economy: Still the Healthiest Horse in the Glue Factory

Love it or hate it, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of business and innovation. This country has something special—an entrepreneurial spirit that’s ingrained in the culture. That’s why, despite all the political drama, people from all over the world still want a U.S. passport.

I’ve been investing globally for two decades—Australia, Africa, Asia, South America, Central America—you name it. I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the outright absurd. That's why it's so clear to me: America is number one. You can fight me on that, but I’ve seen it firsthand. The line of people trying to get into this country says it all.

That said, our markets are incredibly expensive right now. That's especially true when compared to places like Brazil. Colombia, and many other countries, where entire stock markets are trading at single digit P/E ratios.

Perhaps this time is different, and the US will continue to outperform the entire world for the rest of time?

The Dangers of Overpaying

We’ve seen this before. In 1999, investors threw cash at anything with ‘.com’ in the name, convinced the internet would change everything. And it did—but they still massively overpaid. Today, we’re in another hype cycle, this time with AI, crypto, and high-growth tech stocks.

Take Palantir, for example. It’s trading at a P/E of 500. That means investors are valuing the company at 500 years' worth of earnings. Either Palantir is going to get every single government contract around the world, or that stock is coming back down to earth.

I sold my Palantir stock a few months ago at a 400% gain in nine months. You never lose money taking profits. But I’ve also held onto stocks for too long, convinced that the hype was real. Lesson learned: fundamentals always matter—eventually.

Where to Find Value: International Markets and Overlooked Assets

If the U.S. is overpriced, where’s the smart money going? Here’s where I’m looking:

1. Colombia (Ecopetrol - $EC): P/E of 4. Dividend yield of 30%. The Colombian government owns 88% of this company, meaning they have every reason to keep it profitable.

2. Brazil (Petrobras - $PBR): P/E of 5. Dividend yield of 20%. Again, a government-backed cash printer.

3. Guyana: This is one of the biggest untapped opportunities right now. Their GDP per capita has nearly quadrupled in just four years. The government is actively inviting businesses to come in and take advantage. If you’re an entrepreneur, get on a plane. I have been down there multiple times, met with the President, heads of state, and even the U.S. embassy. They are ready to do business.

4. Platinum: Gold is trading at nearly $3,000 per ounce, while platinum is sitting at $900. Historically, platinum has traded higher than gold. If that gap closes, you’re looking at a 3x return on platinum.

5. Natural Gas: The U.S. is quietly locking Europe and Asia into long-term energy dependence, and natural gas is still relatively cheap. This is about more than money—it’s about geopolitical control.

6. IVF & Fertility Stocks: Trump just announced subsidies for IVF. Nobody’s talking about this sector, but it’s about to get huge. These stocks are still cheap, but not for long.

The Geopolitical Shift and Why Africa is a No-Go Right Now

A lot of investors look at Africa as the next frontier. Here’s my take: avoid it. Russian mercenaries (the Wagner Group) are seizing mining operations, and political instability is through the roof. The risk is not worth it.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is shifting focus to Latin America, strengthening trade ties and investing heavily in the region. That’s where I’m looking for opportunity. Argentina, Brazil, and Central America are primed for the next decade.

Bitcoin and the Future of Stablecoins

The U.S. government is moving toward regulating dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies (probably $USDC). People worry about BRICS countries challenging the dollar, but here’s the reality: most people in the world still trust U.S. dollars over anything else.

Here’s something to think about—take an Iraqi dinar and try to use it in South Africa. No one will take it. But try that with a U.S. dollar. They’ll take it every time. That tells you everything you need to know about how the world still views the U.S. dollar.

A regulated, widely accepted U.S. dollar stablecoin could entrench dollar dominance even further. But long term, the real play for wealth preservation is Bitcoin. It’s digital energy, a true store of value, and one of the most interesting investments you can make right now.

The Next Wave of Crypto Adoption

The first step in mainstream crypto adoption will likely come through U.S. dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies. People will start transacting with stablecoins, getting comfortable with the ease and speed of digital payments.

But once they realize the potential beyond just mirroring fiat currency, they'll start exploring alternatives—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other decentralized assets. Once people get comfortable transacting with stablecoins, they’ll naturally start looking for better alternatives.

And that’s where Bitcoin comes in. It’s decentralized, independent, and built to last. Other assets like Ethereum, Solana, and SUI will also play a role, but Bitcoin remains the foundation.

Here’s my advice: don’t wait to get involved.

You don’t have to pour your savings into crypto—just start using it. Make a few transactions, test the waters, and get familiar with the process. The biggest advantage you can give yourself is understanding how this technology works before everyone else does.

It’s like the early days of the internet—those who learned to code or understood computers back then had an enormous advantage. This is that moment for crypto. Those who embraced the internet early gained an edge. The same will happen with crypto.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. is still the best place to do business, but if you’re looking for value, you need to think globally. Many undervalued economies offer incredible opportunities. Platinum is a steal. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere.

Investing is about discipline. Don’t get caught up in hype. Find real value where others aren’t looking.  

United States vs. The World

Most international investments are difficult to investigate. In the U.S. there is a plethora of data that any investor can dive into about nearly any investment you can imagine. Conversely, when it comes to international markets, information can be extremely opaque and sometimes impossible to access… That is, unless you physically investigate the opportunity yourself. That’s what I’ve been doing for the past 20 years. I’ve completed dozens of real estate, private equity, and business transactions in Asia, Europe, Latin America, Australia, and even Africa. I have had a lot of success and also a fair amount of failures. The lessons learned are numerous, but can be summarized in two statements:

• For many investors who want to have great returns over the long run, the U.S. is the only market you should invest in.

• For experienced investors who understand market cycles and want outsized returns, international investing must be part of your strategy.

So, if you’re an investor who already has a main source of income (through traditional employment) and doesn’t want to worry about different investing strategies, what I’m about to share is probably not for you. However, if you are someone who has some investing experience and you’d like to have larger returns to supplement, or ultimately replace how you make a living, then this is exactly what you should be paying attention to. 

Extreme Value Distortion

Right now, in early 2025, global markets are in a situation that has never been seen before. What I mean is that the United States is currently valued vastly higher than nearly any other global competitor.

The chart above compares the performance of the MSCI USA index to the MSCI World index. It provides a valuable perspective on the relative strength or weakness of the US stock market in comparison to the global stock market as a whole. Source: LT

Now, as I said before, this is mostly for good reason. The United States is the best place to do business and put your capital to work. But things have gone too far… Valuations are getting out of control which is presenting some unbelievably unique situations in international markets. As demonstrated in the above chart, the United States’ markets are currently stronger than the rest of the world. And not just by a little. But it’s not just the comparison of the U.S. to global stock markets. It’s the actual valuation of U.S. companies themselves. Using Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation metric, aptly called the “Buffett Indicator,” we’re now at levels that forecast a future negative return.

For clarity, the above chart highlights the value of the U.S. market (blue line) compared to the GDP (green line). Typically, value should track closely to productivity. The current market value compared to the GDP is at a ratio of over 200%, which projects a negative future return. This is based on decades of market data and trends.

Simultaneous to U.S. markets being significantly overvalued, many other markets around the world are reaching historical low valuations.

Seven Least Expensive Global Markets

In this report, I discuss seven of these undervalued markets. I’ve specifically picked markets that are accessible to U.S. investors. That means that the valuations for the countries listed below are based on companies within those markets that are freely trading on U.S. exchanges. There are many other inexpensive countries around the world, but are more difficult to access via their domestic public stock exchanges. Having invested in many international markets over the past two decades, I have learned how important liquidity is. That is why I have not included many countries and/or companies that may be equally compelling from a valuation standpoint. With no clear path to liquidity, international investors often get stuck in value traps. Years ago, I coined the term for this situation as a “barbed investment.” All specific companies, within the countries below, are traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). I’ve selected companies with the largest market capitalization (which usually also provides the most liquidity) for each of the inexpensive markets below. Please note that valuations were based on price to earnings ratios (P/E). This ratio is by no means the only way to value a company, as there are many other factors and future events to take into consideration. However, as you’ll see below, the valuations of many companies around the world are in such stark contrast to companies within the U.S. that it’s hard to ignore. Will the below markets (and individual companies) see enormous growth within the next several years? Only time will tell. But as of right now, here are the 7 least expensive markets in the world....

1. Greece

The Greek economy is experiencing a phase of recovery and growth, with forecasts suggesting a GDP increase of around 2.2% for the year. This growth is supported by strong domestic demand, a surge in tourism, and significant investments. Unemployment, though still above the EU average, has fallen below 10%. The economy has been benefiting from regained investment grade status, which has lowered borrowing costs and attracted foreign investment. This is especially true in the banking sector where significant privatizations have been completed. President Katerina Sakellaropoulou has mostly ceremonial duties but serves as a unifying figure for the nation. The real direction of economic policy is steered by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has been instrumental in pushing forward economic reforms, focusing on digitization, reducing bureaucracy, and enhancing competitiveness. Looking forward, the direction of the Greek economy appears mostly positive. Continued political stability under Mitsotakis's leadership should foster further economic growth. However, there are some big challenges ahead. This includes the need for sustainable growth beyond tourism, managing an aging population, and navigating geopolitical tensions or a broader European economic slowdown.

Danaos Corporation - $DAC

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Marine Shipping Market cap: $1.5bn P/E: 2.7 Insider ownership: ~50%  

2. Colombia

Colombia's economy is navigating through a period of cautious recovery. After a GDP growth of just 0.6% in 2023, the economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, with projections slightly improving in 2025 to around 2.8%. President Gustavo Petro, who took office in August 2022, has pursued an aggressive agenda focusing on social equity, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability. This included proposed reforms in health, labor, and public pensions. However, these reforms have met with significant opposition in Congress, leading to delays. This political gridlock has introduced uncertainty, affecting private sector investment, which saw a 25% decrease in 2023. Petro's economic policies aim to reduce poverty and inequality, with claims of having lifted 1.6 million people out of poverty and 1.3 million out of extreme poverty in his first year. Conversely, his approach towards the oil industry has raised concerns about economic stability and energy supply. He suspended new oil and gas contracts which is hurting the Colombian economy, considering that oil is a major export. The direction Colombia's economy is headed under President Petro is mixed. Political hurdles and a perceived unfriendly business environment could slow growth. The economy's future will depend significantly on how Petro manages to balance his reform agenda with economic stability. Recent events, such as the encounter with Trump, point to Petro losing his upcoming election. If this happens, and a new more business friendly President is elected, Colombia could see a drastic turn around.

Ecopetrol SA ADR - $EC

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Oil & Gas Market cap: $29.6bn P/E: 4.8 Yield: 33% (this extremely high yield can be a value trap, so be careful)  

3. South Korea

South Korea is going through a period of fluctuating growth with several challenges. The GDP growth in 2023 was a modest 1.4%, but projections indicated a slight uptick to 2.2% for 2024. This growth is driven by a recovery in exports, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Inflation has been moderating, around 2.5%. The direction the South Korean economy is headed is uncertain, as the country does not have an active president. President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and arrested over his declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, and is currently in custody. Acting President Choi Sang-mok has taken over presidential duties in the interim. Long-term, South Korea faces structural challenges, including an aging population and low birth rates. For the short-term, the political landscape within the country needs to normalize to bring some sort of certainty and direction for investors.

KB Financial Group Inc ADR - $KB

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Financial Market cap: $23.5bn P/E: 7.8  

4. Brazil

Brazil shows some surprising signs of growth. Real GDP expanded by 2.9% in 2023, and growth expectations for 2024 hover around 2.8%. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who returned to office in 2023, has significantly influenced the economic direction with a focus on social welfare. His administration has passed reforms like tax simplification, which could enhance business efficiency. However, Lula's approach has also introduced concerns for many investors - myself included. The government's primary deficit widened to 8.1% of GDP in 2023, and public debt has climbed to 74% of GDP. Lula's policies lean towards state intervention and social spending, which have led to market concerns over budget deficits and inflation management. In terms of direction, Brazil's economy is at a crossroads. On one path, Lula's leadership will almost certainly lead the country towards more economic uncertainty, with too much focus on socialist policies. On the other hand, if new leadership becomes apparent for the upcoming presidential election, Brazil's economy could come roaring back. You can watch a video I made about Brazil here.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADR - $PBR

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Oil & Gas Market cap: $88bn P/E: 5.6 Yield: 20% (this extremely high yield can be a value trap, so be careful)  

5. Spain

Spain's economy has had surprising growth, with GDP expansion projected at 3.0% for 2024. For the next two years growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. This growth is driven by a combination of strong domestic consumption, a recovering tourism sector, and strategic investments. Unemployment has dropped to a 15-year low, and inflation is cooling. Spain's President, Pedro Sánchez, has played an important role in steering the country's economic direction. His administration has been proactive in leveraging EU funds to stimulate economic recovery, focusing on digitalization and social reforms. Sánchez's policies have been aimed at improving competitiveness, fostering job creation, and addressing long-standing structural challenges like housing and education. Overall, Spain's economy appears to be on an upward trajectory. The challenge will be to maintain this growth while addressing fiscal, demographic, and regional issues to secure long-term prosperity.

Banco Santander S.A. ADR - $SAN

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Financial Market cap: $78bn P/E: 6.6  

6. Chile 

Chile's economy had a slight contraction in 2023 with a GDP growth of -0.5%, while the economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2024. This is driven by a rebound in mining output (especially copper), lower inflation, and a gradual reduction in interest rates. President Gabriel Boric has been at the helm of a left-leaning government. His administration has pushed for significant changes in tax policy, pension systems, and the mining sector, with an emphasis on increasing state involvement (especially in lithium extraction). However, these reforms have been met with resistance from opposition and some business sectors, leading to political gridlock. This has slowed down investment, especially in mining. The direction the Chilean economy is headed under Boric's presidency is uncertain. The fiscal deficit remains a concern, alongside a rising public debt ratio. How Boric navigates the balance between his reform agenda and maintaining investor confidence will be crucial. If his administration can secure bipartisan support for key reforms, this could stabilize the economy and promote growth.

Banco de Chile ADR - $BCH

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Financial Market cap: $12.6 P/E: 9  

7. Peru

After a contraction of -0.6% in 2023 due to social unrest and political instability, the Peruvian economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2024. This recovery is supported by a strong performance in the mining sector, especially copper and lithium. Inflation has been brought under control, aligning within the central bank's target range. The fiscal deficit, while above the target in 2023, is expected to narrow to around 2.3% of GDP in 2024. President Dina Boluarte has been in a turbulent political environment since taking office in 2022. Her presidency has been marked by low approval ratings, frequent cabinet reshuffles, and ongoing political scandals. The political instability, coupled with social protests, has dented business confidence and investment, especially in the mining sector. The direction Peru's economy is headed is uncertain due to the persistent political instability. However, economic fundamentals like resource wealth, a relatively stable currency, and access to international markets position Peru for growth. The government's efforts to attract foreign investment through infrastructure projects and agreements like the MOU with the U.S. for mineral access are positive steps. You can watch a video about Peru's relationship with China here.

Credicorp Ltd - $BAP

Exchange: NYSE Industry: Financial Market cap: $14.7bn P/E: 11  

Taking Action

While it may be tempting to immediately invest in countries and/or companies that are valued at historically low valuations, it’s important to realize that changes take time. Just as the United States has been growing tremendously for many years, other countries and companies may have contractions and slow growth for years. That said, historic investment strategies that stick to following undervalued opportunities typically pay off in the long term. By rotating out of expensive equities into lower valued stocks, investors can set themselves up for continued future growth. The important part to remember is that you have time to pursue any of the ideas shared above. It’s highly likely that many of these undervalued countries will rebound in the future. But that will not happen overnight. Having the patience to monitor these markets and then slowly allocate capital to situations that are improving over time is likely the best strategy. Personally, I am watching for political changes in most of the countries I've listed above as the catalyst for change. Many inexpensive markets right now are being held back by political agendas that are strangling economic growth. Which international markets are most interesting to you?  

Our dinner venue was in a downtown basement - in a former bank vault.

The conversation I had, about the 'Spice King of Zanzibar,' was just one of many interesting stories I heard last night. That's why I love hosting dinners around the world. I get to meet interesting people and understand what's really happening on the ground. And sometimes, I get exposure to very interesting investment opportunities. After a late night, I woke up this morning having a new perspective on what's currently going on in San Francisco and the broader Bay Area. My past negative thoughts of this area have been fueled by my personal experiences and general political insanity that always seems to sprout from this region. The last time I was in San Francisco, it was unbearable. The city reeked of urine and I was screamed at several times for not wearing a face diaper, even as I walked on a remote hiking trail. But this time is much different. There are definitely some rough parts of the city (has Tenderloin gotten worse?!), but most other parts are surprisingly clean and bustling. Is it possible that San Francisco is making a comeback?

My buddy Steve, who was at last night's dinner, thinks so.

I'm not totally sure. But I can't argue with the incredible tech, talent, and absurd amount of money that is constant in this area.

Picks and Shovels in Tech Land

Before I sat down to write this all out, I walked through Levi Park, which is right in front of the Levi Strauss headquarters. If you've been a reader of mine for a while, you know where I'm going with this... I've long talked about how investing in 'picks and shovels' opportunities is usually the best way to approach an industry. I've personally done it very successfully multiple different times. The idea is to invest in the things that support a specific industry... things that may not be obvious at first. Levi Strauss is probably the best example of this strategy. As an immigrant from Germany, Strauss provided supplies to the California gold miners during the gold rush in the mid-1800's. Most famously, he developed and sold jeans with rivets at the corners of the pockets. He patented the technology and went on to sell countless pairs of jeans to miners and workers around the world. When Strauss passed away in San Francisco in 1902 he was worth about $30 million - equivalent to nearly $1 billion today. [Insert joke about inflation, buy gold, bitcoin.] This same concept exists today with the tech industry. The 'Spice King of Zanzibar' has clearly found his niche.

Space Picks and Shovels

I'm sure there are still plenty of opportunities in the San Francisco area to build picks and shovels businesses that cater to the tech industry. But it's definitely crowded. However, that doesn't mean there aren't other opportunities, in other industries, in other parts of the world... In the past, I have written about the many lucrative opportunities in the space industry. For most investors, this means finding high-tech private startups and placing bets on smart teams. Not only is this extremely difficult to do, it's also very risky. But there is a new picks and shovels opportunity in the space industry, and it's unfolding right now in Florida. In addition to private space companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin operating out of Cape Canaveral, the US Government is now considering moving NASA out of Washington D.C. to the Sunshine State. The "Space Coast," which is already booming with its own tourism board, is set to grow even more.

Source: Zillow

This rapid growth has fueled a boom in the area's economy, which includes the real estate market of Titusville. Despite prices recently cooling off, I think there is A LOT more room to grow. That's because there will be more and more highly paid space engineers moving to this region in the coming years. And simply stated, these people are going to drive up real estate prices. Beyond real estate, it's going to be restaurants, schools, entertainment, and everything else you can think of that will support the growing space industry. Maybe you can be the Spice King of the Space Coast?        

Source: Pretty cool video of surfing waves in Greenland from calving glaciers.

Now, I'm no cold-wave-connoisseur, but there's something about remote beautiful adventure that makes Greenland very enticing. And looking on most maps, the adventure-potential for Greenland looks massive!

However, this size illusion is thanks to the Mercator projection which distorts the size and distance of areas, especially those farther from the equator. The real size of Greenland is much smaller - about 4.5 times smaller than the United States.

But this size discrepancy doesn't change the importance of this huge land mass. That's why Donald Trump is so interested in forming a tight bond with this autonomous territory of Denmark. In addition to hosting the United State's northern most military base (Pituffik Space Base), the United States wants Greenland for two more huge reasons: resources and location.

Greenland's Strategic Arctic Location

The first reason why Trump wants to warm up to Greenland is blatantly obvious - location.

Source: The Arctic Institute

Greenland's location creates pinch-points for nearly every single arctic shipping route. This means that whoever controls Greenland can play a significant role in allowing what and who can navigate in the region. This is especially relevant today, as northern shipping routes are becoming more trafficked by all nations - especially China and Russia. For the United States, the possibility that a major shipping lane could be controlled by an adversary is simply out of the question. One only needs to look at the piracy that has occurred near the Suez canal or the Strait of Malacca for examples of what could go wrong. Of course, for the United States, having control over Greenland is also about maintaining US global supremacy. And part of that supremacy has to do with more than just shipping...

Rare Earth Metals in Greenland

Most investors assume that Greenland is rich with oil and gas, but that's not the only natural resource that is drawing US attention... Rare earth metals, also known as rare earth elements (REE), are used in a variety of cases which include alloys, glasses, magnets, and electronics. Those last two use cases, magnets and electronics, are especially important for high tech industries such as defense. For the United States, access and supply of rare earth metals is a matter of national security. That's why Greenland's potential supply could be extremely strategic. For investors, who understand what this means, there could be ENORMOUS gains for those who get in early. Amazingly, there are already publicly listed companies which you can invest in right now. My good friend Swen Lorenz published an entire report on one company that is positioned to take advantage of this exact situation. You can download it here - it's a monster report that is totally free (really, no catch).      

Skin in the Game Investment Predictions

I look at investment analysis from the other way around: I want to hear about investments and different perspectives from people who actually have skin in the game. It's something that I've tried to stick to over the past decade. Only focus on investment themes that I am personally pursuing. This strategy makes me much more cautious about what I discuss, as I'm on the hook for anything I get wrong. Plus, I don't want to waste any of my own personal time researching topics that I don't intend on exploiting. This process has taught me a lot of lessons. Probable the most important being: It's much easier to get a long term macro investment correct rather than a short term situational trade. On top of that, investing with short time horizons will make you nuts. You'll end up stressing yourself to the maximum and become addicted to monitoring your positions.

Gamblers Anonymous has seen a huge increase of investors joining due to new investment platforms providing 24/7 market access. Source: WSJ

Just like most things in life, but especially when it comes to investing, one must learn this the hard way. That's why, despite there being an unlimited amount of investing education from the world's best investors, most people still fail to beat the market. The best investors typically have the most experiences - good and bad.

2025 Macro Investments

Part of investing in macro trends successfully is accurately capturing the actual trend. There's nothing worse than seeing an entire sector go up in value while your specific investment tanks. Here's an example: I recommended buying the uranium ETF ($URA) several years ago. Over the course of 5 years, we made about 40% annualized returns. In general, we captured the uranium trend relatively well with the ETF. Conversely, I know many investors who were chasing individual uranium mining stocks. Some small companies ended up producing enormous gains - much larger than our $URA investment. However, many other uranium miners went completely bust, leaving investors holding an empty bag. So, if you're investing in a large theme make sure you're not too focused on a specific company within that theme. At the end of each section below, I provide one broader strategy to catch the general theme topic. Let's jump into the 2025 macro investment predictions...

Bitcoin Continues to Surprise

I've been writing about Bitcoin for over a decade. I'm not going to try to convince you to buy for enormous upside - I think that ship has sailed quite a while ago. However, I do think that Bitcoin will continue to outperform many traditional assets over the long run. Rather than make the traditional argument about why you should own Bitcoin, I want to share two charts to give some perspective on possible future outcomes. First is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (this one is calibrated to account for the halving price regression). This chart is pretty self explanatory and is a great way to visualize "you are here" in the Bitcoin timeline. You can read all the details about this chart here.

Source: Bitbo

The next chart shows the MVRV Z-score. This one is a bit technical, as it takes into account the market value (MV) to relative value (RV) and how many standard deviations the current MVRV is from its historical mean. More importantly, this gives perspective on where we are in the historical Bitcoin cycle.

Source: Bitbo

Of course, neither of these charts should be your only tool for deciding whether to invest in Bitcoin, or not. Instead, these are helpful to understand the track record of Bitcoin as it transitions into its 15th year of existence. Over the past several years, I have made a variety of presentations to big and small groups of private investors. I always end these presentations with a slide that says, "Money printer go brrrrr, buy Bitcoin."

The actual last slide in my presentations.

Healthcare Bottoms

Making a list of explanations as to why healthcare has under performed over the past two years would take quite some time. A large portion of that list would fall into the "healthcare in the United States is broken" category.

Regardless of how we got here, the demographic timeline still marches on. By 2030, ALL baby boomers will be over the age of 65. This is the largest age group in human history to reach this milestone (by a long shot), and still outnumbers every single other age group in the world, other than the millennials (boomer's children). It doesn't take a rocket engineer to forecast enormous future healthcare demand. Really, it's already happening. With an annual management fee of 0.09%, The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLV) is probably the easiest way to get exposure here. Incredibly, this ETF has only returned 1.6% over the past three YEARS! I expect this flat return trend to change in the future. There's no immediate rush to get into this investment trend, but you should definitely keep an eye on this sector. With a US government that is likely to completely overhaul the healthcare industry, combined with massive non-discretionary spending from an aging population, this is an industry that will certainly bounce back.

The U.S. Dollar Weakens

I like to call the U.S. dollar the 'healthiest horse in the glue factory.' Despite the enormous debt load and financial mismanagement that is still  underway, I project that the dollar will still reign king of the currencies for a long time to come. I've explained this at length in the past. The reality is that the world still views the dollar as the best way to store wealth, compared to other currencies. And there just isn't any other realistic competitor. But the U.S. doesn't want a dollar that is too strong. And that's exactly what is happening right now, as currencies around the world are the weakest they've ever been. Whether it's Brazil, Australia, Canada, or even India, most country's currencies are struggling to hold power against the USD. That's a great feeling for those holding U.S. dollars, but this trend will reverse at some point. The simplest reason is that the U.S. needs a weaker currency in order to be a competitive trading partner. Now is a great time to consider purchasing assets to preserve your wealth. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and even platinum look interesting right now. Also energy...

Energy Becomes a Safe Haven

If you asked someone in 2005 what the price of oil would be in 2025, I don't think anyone would answer "the same." But that's exactly what it is - $70 a barrel - the same price as 20 years ago. The reasons are numerous and range from the fracking revolution to record oil discoveries in new markets. This has recently resulted in a unique situation where energy, in general, is CHEAP.

There are obvious narratives, such as the incoming Trump administration pushing for more oil drilling, which are suppressing energy prices. But there are also other obvious factors to counter that suppression, such as record energy demands from data centers and general electricity consumption increases around the world. That's why it's surprising that oil prices are the same as 20 years ago NOT inflation adjusted. This is despite the U.S. dollar losing 38% of it's value in that same time. The easiest way to allocate capital to the energy sector is through The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE). While most energy is cheap, I'm glad we traded out of our uranium play:

An A.I. Play Bursts

I recently sold out of my Palantir ($PLTR) position even though I still love the company. With a 300%+ gain in less than a year (and nosebleed valuation metrics), I've learned from past mistakes that you never lose money by taking a profit! There are many other A.I. themed companies that are also trading for unbelievable numbers right now. While I don't have any specific forecasts as to which company will go bust, I do believe there are huge risks with entering into any A.I. themed investment right now. This is especially true when you contrast other opportunities, like energy or emerging markets...

Certain Emerging Markets Shine

I've been investing in international markets for two decades. Real estate in Latin America, venture capital in Asia, private placements in Europe, and even business in Africa. What I've learned over and over again is that the United States is, by far, the best place to invest. But that doesn't mean there isn't opportunity in other places, which is more true now than ever before. That's because global valuations have gotten so incredibly low, especially compared to the U.S. I think there are some once-in-a-lifetime situations staring right at our faces. Greece, Brazil, the UK, and Canada look especially interesting to me right now because of likely momentum changes that will be unfolding in those countries in the coming years (Greece has already started). Brazil in particular has reached a level of negative sentiment I have not seen for any country, maybe ever. With a P/E of 7 and a yield of 10%, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF ($EWZ) looks interesting. But, as I've mentioned before, there is no rush to get into any position here. Take your time, DCA into markets that you think are especially compelling, and be very patient.

U.S. Valuations Begin to Normalize

'Valuations begin to normalize' is a polite way of saying that things have to get cheaper, or else U.S. markets are going to get way too far over their ski tips, if they haven't already. With a P/E of 40 in the NASDAQ, and 30 in the S&P 500, US markets are extremely expensive and would require enormous annual growth for many years to come to justify today's valuations.

Even the Buffett Indicator is blinking red lights.

But, as I mentioned with the U.S. dollar, the United States is still the healthiest horse in the glue factory. There may be some small economies that could do well in the coming years, but none of the bigger players have a chance of outperforming the U.S. China has serious internal financial and demographic issues; India has tremendous demographic tailwinds, but a challenging economic environment and relatively expensive markets; the entire EU is in trouble, for so many reasons; Russia's GDP is about the same as Texas, but Texas GDP per capita is five times that of Russia. Here's the bottom line: The U.S. is extremely expensive right now, but for good reason.

Invest in the Future, Not the Present

Where will the world be in five years? Ten? I'd be willing to bet a lot of money, which I am, that several of the above forecasts will come to fruition. What about you? Where will you be? And how are you going to change your life for the better? Join me, and other adventurous and curious investors at one of my dinners sometime this year. I always have one planned, which you can see at the bottom of each of my newsletters. These gatherings allow you to compare notes with other successful investors, in real time. I've ended up doing business and investing with so many of you over the years... it's truly been incredible and extremely lucrative! Plus, you never know who I'll have as a guest...